BLOG: Making sense of the census – Dorian Gonsalves, Belvoir Group

Lockdowns, the impact of low interest rates, pent up consumer demand and a Stamp Duty holiday created an extremely buoyant market in 2021, resulting in a bumper year for UK estate agency, with 20% more transactions than normal.

The market began to return to normal in 2022 and according to HMRC figures the number of transactions shrank by 15%, but analysis of the Census 2021 by Dataloft provides further clues as to how the market is likely to react going forward.

ROLLERCOASTER

The past couple of years have been a real rollercoaster in terms of the pandemic, political uncertainty, and other external market factors, including war in Eastern Europe.

Last September’s Mini-Budget sent financial shockwaves around the world, resulting in a series of interest rate rises. This chaotic period culminated in a period of consumer paralysis, with people postponing their plans to remortgage, buy new cars, or undertake costly house renovations.

In 2023 people are gradually regaining confidence. The national census, which is produced once every 10 years, provides key information that enables us to predict how public confidence may create new market opportunities and challenges.

Interestingly, Census 2021 reveals that in the decade leading up to 2021, the population of 30-somethings grew by over 700,000 in England and Wales. The average age of a first-time buyer is 33.8 years, so we know that many people will now be wanting to buy their first homes.

OPPORTUNITIES

During the same period, the number of over 60’s grew by almost two million, and these people may now be contemplating downsizing or other significant lifestyle changes, which will create new market opportunities.

The Census 2021 also confirmed that amongst homeowners, those that are mortgage free are now in the majority.

In 2021 a total of 33% of households owned their homes outright – increasing from 31% in 2011. Historical low interest rates over the past decade have enabled homeowners to pay off their mortgages faster, but interestingly the Private Rental Sector (PRS) grew by 1.1m, rising from 17% of households to 20%.

PRICES

Property prices over the past decade rose by an average of 39% compared to 2011 and the extent of these increases continued to vary across England and Wales, with the lowest rate of change in the North East at 16%, up to 50.4% in the East Midlands and 50.3% in London.

This may encourage increasing numbers of mortgage free homeowners to consider investing in the buy-to-let market.

Although the Census 2021 revealed that 75% of the population live in urban areas, it is also noticeable that during the pandemic many students and young people temporarily returned home, which boosted the population of rural areas. As students have now returned to university life, there is a huge pressure on our franchisees to help them find good quality student accommodation.

Dorian Gonsalves is Chief Executive of the Belvoir Group