House prices analysis – the national picture
The latest property prices indices summarised and put into historical context, by the UK's leading house market analyst, Kate Faulkner.
Bearing in mind that property prices were expected to fall further this year, however, any indication that the market is stabilising is good news.
Latest prices in historical context
Property price and market indices headlines
Early-bird buyers build market momentum but price sensitivity remains
“Average new seller asking prices rise by 0.9% this month to £362,839. The annual price change moves tentatively back into positive territory after 6 months of annual price falls, with prices up by 0.1% on a year ago.”
Spring optimism permeates the market
“Asking prices show a spring lift of 0.2% since last month across England and Wales but are down year-on-year, albeit by a mere 0.1% vs. Feb 2023.”
Sales volumes expected to recover further over the coming months
“House price declines continue to ease, with London seeing a largely stable trend emerge.”
Annual house price growth returns to positive territory for first time in over a year in February
“UK house prices rose 0.7% month on month in February.”
House prices rise for fifth consecutive month
“Average house prices rose by +0.4% in February, the fifth monthly rise in a row.”
Prices up by £3,000 in February…largest rise in prices in the last 17 months
“On a monthly basis, house prices have risen, in this instance by a significant £3,000, or 0.8%, in February 2024, and now stand at a level first seen in February 2022. This is the highest monthly increase since September 2022, some seventeen months ago.”
The positive momentum in the housing market continues
“UK house price inflation slows to -0.5% on rising sales volumes.”
The best news… is the consistency of feedback that sales are up.”
The best news from the property price indices though is the consistency of feedback that sales are up by 16% (Rightmove), 14% (Home.co.uk) and according to Zoopla, “Sales momentum has been recovering for 5 months and we are on track for 10% more sales (1.1m) in 2024 than last year”.
Additional highlights from this month’s indices include:
- Agreed sales in the first six weeks of 2024 are 16% higher than over the same period last year, and 3% higher than in the more normal market of 2019, indicating that many early-bird buyers feel that 2024 offers the right conditions to mover.
- The growing market momentum is also evidenced by the increase in activity of both buyers and sellers on Rightmove with 7% more new listings coming to market than last year, and a 7% upturn in the number of buyers enquiring.
- However, the market remains very price-sensitive, and appears to be operating at two speeds, with properties that are priced accurately being snapped up by budget-conscious buyers, whilst over-priced properties are left on the shelf:
- It’s taking more than two weeks longer to find a buyer than at this time last year, with the average time to sell at its slowest since 2015, excluding the initial pandemic lockdown months of April & May 2020.
- Rightmove analysis shows that sellers who price right initially are far more likely to sell quickly.
- Annual rate of change returned to positive territory for first time since January 2023 – prices up 1.2% year on year.
- Borrowing costs remain well below the highs recorded last summer but, if the recent upward trend is sustained, it threatens to restrain the pace of any housing market recovery.
- The total sales stock count for England and Wales has risen in line with seasonal expectations. The current total of unsold property is 440,674, around 16,800 more than last month.
- The number of new instructions entering the market during January 2024 was 14% more than during January 2023. Compared to pre-COVID January 2019, supply is slightly down (by 2%).
- The Typical Time on Market for unsold property in England and Wales remains unchanged since January. The current median is 112 days; in pre COVID February 2020, the same measure was 116 days.
- Although the annual average sale price of completed home transactions using cash and/or mortgages in England and Wales fell in February 2024 by some £10,750, or -2.9%, to £363,249, this still represents a near 1% gain over the -3.8% fall in the annual rate seen in January (revised).
- Transactions remain at lowest levels since 2013.
- Sales momentum has been recovering for 5 months and we are on track for 10% more sales (1.1m) in 2024 than last year.
- All measures of activity higher with sales agreed up 15%.
- A fifth more homes for sale than last year as sellers return.
- Seven regions with positive annual price inflation, price falls in five.
