House prices analysis: country and regional markets for Spring 2024
Kate Faulkner takes a step back to give us a national perspective on house price movements over the past few weeks. Scotland's up, England and Wales down and Northern Ireland holds its own.
Scotland leaps into the lead this month for year-on-year property price growth, according to Land Registry data. Prices are up by 5.6%, which is even higher than the long term average price growth of 3.7% and possibly for the first time in a while, slightly higher than inflation, which is currently running at 3.8% in March, according to the Office of National Statistics.
Meanwhile, England and Wales remain slightly down year on year under Land Registry’s measure, while Nationwide, which measures a more recent market, is showing some signs of prices starting to recover from 2023 falls.
Northern Ireland property prices are holding their own to rising year on year.
Property prices by country
For Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland we monitor:
- Principality Building Society
- Halifax
- Esurv
However, despite the averages, when you delve down more deeply into what’s happening in each country, as with England and Wales, property price performance differs within each market.
Summary from the indices of the Scottish housing market
Latest data from Halifax and E.surv suggests that prices are rising, albeit small ‘on average’:
“Scottish house prices rose +1.5% year-on-year to stand at £204,579.”
E.surv
Annual price growth positive at +0.4%
“The average house price in Scotland in February 2024 has increased by £920, or 0.4%, over the last twelve months, which is 0.4% higher than the revised rate of 0.0% seen in January 2024, one month earlier. This followed the December 2023 annual figure of -0.4% which was the first time the annual growth rate had been negative since May 2016, some seven and a half years earlier.
“In February 2024, 18 of the 32 local authorities in Scotland were reporting a positive movement in prices over the previous twelve months, two more than in January 2024.
“Inverclyde had the highest annual rate of price growth in February of all local authority areas in Scotland, at 11.4%. In Inverclyde, all property types except semi-detached homes have seen an increase in values over the last twelve months, with detached homes having the largest influence on prices, assisted by the sale of the highest priced property of the last eighteen months – a 5-bedroom detached home in Kilmacolm, which sold for £1.45 million.
“The second-highest growth rate was in Na-h Eileanan Siar, at 7.2%, with all property types – except semi-detached homes – seeing a rise in average values. The increase on the Islands was assisted by the sale of a three-bedroom detached cottage overlooking the white sands beach at Luskentyre, on the Isle of Harris, for £417k..”
Summary from the indices of the Welsh housing market
Halifax have a slightly rosier picture of property prices in Wales than Principality:
“In Wales annual property price growth slowed to +1.1% in April, from +1.9% in March, with the average home now costing £218,775.”
Average house price in Wales falls for fifth consecutive quarter
“There have now been five consecutive quarters of price falls since average prices peaked in Wales at just over £249,000 in late 2022. Prices eased back by a further £5,000 in the first quarter of 2024 to a little over £229,000. This is 8%- or nearly £20,000- below their recent peak, but still 23% higher than five years ago.
“Nevertheless, strong underlying inflationary pressures until recently have helped to disguise that this has been the weakest period for the Welsh housing market since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. After adjusting for inflationary pressures, property prices are 14% below their 2022 peak, and are now running in line with their level five years ago.
“The 2.1% decline in prices recorded in this first quarter was similar to Q4, but with the jobs market appearing fairly resilient and expectations of Bank of England interest rate cuts during 2024, Q1 may well represent the low point for house prices. Certainly, we are already seeing significant cuts in mortgage rates and increases in some measures of housing market activity.”
Summary from the indices of the Northern Ireland housing market
“Northern Ireland remains the strongest performing nation or region in the UK, with house prices up by +3.4% on an annual basis in April, though this slowed from +4.1% in March. Properties in Northern Ireland now cost an average of £192,502.”
Regional property prices tracking
On a regional basis, the summary table below shows that depending on when the index is tracking prices has a big impact on the number up or down. For example, Rightmove which measures the prices properties are marketed at, eight regions are up and only one – the East of England is down.
In contrast, Land Registry which measures the market at the end of a transaction – which can be some three months or more ‘old’, only three regions are up, including the North East, West and Yorkshire and Humber, while six are down.
Looking at the actual falls/rises though, these are pretty slim currently with the highest rise recorded by Nationwide and Home.co.uk in the ‘North’ of around 4%, while the biggest falls were 4.8% recorded by the Land Registry in London.
So in reality, on a regional basis, although the market does appear to be turning a corner, it’s definitely only poking its head around!
Commentary on the regional performance by indices is below:
“The North West tops the regional property market growth league with a year-on-year gain of 4.1% while the East of England remains the worst performing region over the same period at -1.2%.
“House prices continue to fall, at a slowing rate, across five English regions covering southern England and the East Midlands. Prices are down the most (-1.7%) across East of England. Improving market activity in recent months has resulted in house price inflation turning positive across the three regions of northern England, West Midlands, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.”
“The North West continues to see the strongest growth in England, up by +3.3% on an annual basis to £231,599.
“Annual price falls are predominately found in the south of England, as the ‘North-South’ divide across English regions is sustained. Properties in Eastern England recorded the biggest decline of -1.1%, with homes selling for an average of £329,723, a drop of £3,541 over the last year.
“London remains the most expensive region in the UK to buy a home, with an average price of £539,336. However prices in the capital have been relatively flat over the last year, up by just +0.1%.”
