April and May data this month are critical to understanding the impact of the end of the March Stamp Duty Land Tax and any additional effect of global influences on the UK economy and property market, especially following the ‘Storm Donalds’ tariffs.

So far, though, things seem to be going OK. It’s not surprising we have seen a general dip in activity when so many sales were brought forward into March. Although that’s impacted the number of transactions, it hasn’t stopped people putting their property up for sale and it doesn’t appear to have had much impact on prices month on month, on average at least.

Rightmove is showing an increase versus March and the rest are showing property prices have remained pretty much the same. Year on year, all indices bar E.surv show rises ranging from 1.3% though to 5.3%.

And things should continue to improve through the rest of May as the latest decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to reduce the Bank Base Rate (BBR) to 4.25%, will undoubtedly help boost buyers’ affordability, especially as further falls are forecast by the end of the year.

The following chart from Richard Donnell at Zoopla shows the potential for affordability to be increased by 15-20%, helping to hopefully improve buyer demand to match the high levels of property for sale.

Rightmove rightly suggest (in my view) that “The resilience of the British property market will be further tested by the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs on the UK economy over the coming weeks and months.”

However, so far, the initial impact of Trump’s tariff war seems to have abated, especially as, after a few weeks, he reduced many of the initial tariffs proposed. Key financial markets have returned to normal (at the time of writing) and as far as the UK is concerned, although Trump’s tariffs are likely to cause some issues economically, this will hopefully be balanced by the trade deals being closed with the USA, Indian and Europe.

Property price and market indices headlines

Rightmove

New record asking price with resilient activity despite stamp duty increase

“The average price of property coming to market for sale rises by 1.4% (+£5,312) this month to a new record of £377,182.”

RICS

Sales market activity continues to decline

“Measures of new buyer demand and agreed sales weaken further.”

Home.co.uk

Home Prices Up in All Regions Except London Due to Oversupply

“Overall, annualised home price growth across England and Wales remains well below the level of inflation at just 1.4% overall.”

Nationwide

Annual house price growth slows slightly in April

“Annual rate of house price growth slowed to 3.4% in April, from 3.9% in March.”

Halifax

Slight rise in house prices as market maintains strength                                         

“House prices increased by +0.3% in April vs -0.5% in March.”

E.surv

A flat market but with strong regional variations

“Market to continue mildly positive despite global uncertainties.”

Zoopla

House price inflation slows as supply grows

“House price inflation is starting to slow after a sustained recovery over the last 12 months.”

Summary of the insights from this month’s indices

Rightmove

A snapshot of the post-stamp-duty-increase market suggests movers are carrying on and have adjusted to the tax rise:

• The level of agreed sales falling through remains steady, with most buyers who missed the deadline still proceeding.
• The queue of buyers completing home moves has eased by nearly 24,000, as many successfully beat the deadline.
• Mover activity remains resilient with new buyer demand up by 5% versus last year and the number of new sellers coming to market up by 4%.

Home

• Sales market momentum shows a significant increase over April 2024.
• A burst in activity has sent the property turnover rate higher than any of the previous ten years of April readings.
• Typical Time on Market is just one day higher than in April last year despite higher stock levels.

Nationwide        

• Annual rate of house price growth slowed to 3.4% in April, from 3.9% in March.
• House prices down 0.6% month-on-month.
• The softening in house price growth was to be expected, given the changes to stamp duty at the start of the month. Early indications suggest there was a significant jump in transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional tax obligations.
• The market is likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays. Nevertheless, activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses.

Halifax

• Average property price now £297,781 compared to £296,899 in previous month.
• Annual rate of growth at +3.2% up from +2.9% in March.
• House prices remarkably stable over last six months, down by just £48.

 E.surv

• Tax changes may be less disruptive than expected.
• The North moves ahead while the South continues to drag the market backwards.
• The average sale price of a home in England and Wales remained unchanged in April at £359,200, continuing a generally lacklustre performance over recent months.
• Nominal prices have broadly moved sideways while declining in real terms.

Zoopla

• Prices are still rising faster than a year ago (-0.2%) but we expect the rate of UK house price inflation to moderate in the coming months.
• There are several factors behind the expected slowdown. The number of homes for sale is growing faster than the number of sales being agreed, boosting choice for buyers and re-enforcing a buyers’ market.
• While house price inflation is slowing, the number of sales agreed continues to increase, up 5% on a year ago, with demand 10% higher.