House price variations at city level continue to be extreme, ranging from falls recorded by the Land Registry of 4.2% in Manchester to rises of 7.6% from Hometrack in Belfast.

However, the main story remains that property prices, in most areas, whether it’s now or over the long, are not rising above inflation – so anyone owning a property outright is essentially losing money, albeit keeping a roof over their head.

The positive news is that, despite frequent media claims that affordability is blocking buyers from getting onto the ladder, the picture is more encouraging than the headlines would suggest.

Wages have risen faster than inflation in recent years; house prices remain below 2022 levels in over half the cities we track; and changes to mortgage stress tests have improved buying power by around 15–20%.

Together, these factors mean affordability is improving, which should help increased demand keep pace with the higher number of listings.

House price highlights

1. Average inflation is 2.9% since 2005 and only 12/30 of our cities have seen higher growth than this since 2005.

2. 17 / 30 of our cities tracked have average property prices less than they were in 2022.

3. This month the average UK property price increase according to the Land Registry was +2.8%, 11/30 cities saw property price growth higher than this and not one of our 30 cities recorded a price increase of 2.8%!

Appendix: City/town property indices price tracking

For city/town tracking, we use Land Registry (government data) and Zoopla/Hometrack. The Land Registry data is useful because we can analyse how property prices have changed over time and this helps us to put today’s price information into context.

The Zoopla/Hometrack data is useful as they take into account the change in mix of property transactions during the pandemic to houses away from flats. This has meant the likes of the Land Registry and other indices have over exaggerated price changes year on year.