Mike Day is celebrating 45 years working in the property industry and as one of the sector’s best-known figures. The Negotiator sat down with him (virtually, of course) to get the inside track on how he thinks the industry will weather the pandemic.

He talks about his experiences as a senior director at Connells, working as a consultant since then with many of the industry’s leading property and tech firms including Teclet, and his views on Countrywide, the high street and much more.

Will Covid kill the high street?

The move away from the high street was happening anyway but the pandemic is accelerating that process and I think it’s a real paradigm shift moment.

The big corporate CEOs swear the high street is still alive and kicking, though?

If you’ve got 500 branches on the high street with long leases to go then of course, yes, you’re going to say the high street is the best place to be. It’s not dead, but it will need to change and I think many were already largely night time economies anyway.

I remember at Connells when we acquired a regional agency business off the Prudential during the early 1990s and it took two years to sort out the branches and offload the ‘spare inventory’ so to speak. But by the time it was done, we were saving £500,000 a year. Now, Countrywide and companies like it have the same challenge.

I think we’re going to see a lot more rationalisation because the days of a big agency having a branch in every high street are gone.

Will Covid weaken the housing market?

No, I don’t think so – the current low interest rate economy will mean there won’t be the build up of negative equity or 100,000s repossessions hitting the market in the same way it did during the financial crisis. Covid hasn’t hit home-owners yet, and I think once Covid is all over we’ll see a big economic pick-up. The only unknown is Brexit, of course.

What’s changed the industry the most since you joined it?

The two big things are the internet, which has changed the world as well as the industry. But the other was the arrival of Assured Shorthold Tenancy in 1988. Overnight it created a private rental sector after years of regulated rents, ushering in the flexibility that enables people to invest in property and created a new market for agents. I think a lot of younger agents aren’t aware of that.

Will RoPA change the industry?

Yes, if RoPA does happen, but it will take years for the government to get it up and running, at which point I think many of the more marginal, one or two-person local agents will be persuaded to retire early and sell up. An awful lot of them are in their 50s.

Was the negative impact of the Tenant Fees ban exaggerated?

It’s accelerated a process which should have happened earlier – i.e. agents have started charging landlords a realistic price for their service. And the good agents have moved more to letting and managing properties, leaving the ‘tenant find’ only market to the more marginal or online volume competitors. I think it made everyone wake up and smell the coffee.

Will Rightmove keep its top spot in the portal world?

Rightmove’s success and PLC status means its top chiefs are incentivised to play it safe and have carried on with what is essentially fairly old technology. If they’re not careful then their position could be eroded quickly if another platform with better technology becomes popular with house hunters. And yes, a platform like Boomin could do that.

What will happen to Countrywide?

I know some of the people involved but I’m not privy to what’s going on. But something has needed to happen at Countrywide for some time. And my opinion is that if Connells were to buy it, that would be best outcome.

Neither Alchemy nor Robin Paterson’s outfit [Catalist] have the resources or management expertise to turn it around. One interesting development might be that Connells and LSL could get together to make it work. But that remains to be seen.

What does the future hold for the industry?

I think there’s going to be a huge growth in the self-employed model. We’re still in the early days of that in the same way that we were with franchising 20 years ago, but that is now an established part of the industry.

Overall, I believe we’ll see a reduction in the number of branches and people working in the industry, but those who are left will be better qualified and make better use of technology.

On a lighter note – anyone wishing to witness some of Mike’s guitar skills should visit his festivae message on the Agents Together Linked page.