A no-deal Brexit would see house prices fall across the UK for the first six months after we left the EU, a poll of the UK’s property experts by news agency Reuters has revealed.
Some 85% of the experts said both UK and in particular London house prices would fall including outside the capital by 3% and inside by 10%.
But if Boris can pull the rabbit out of the bag and sign a deal with the EU, the same experts predict a post-Brexit bounce during the same six-month period. This would see house prices rising by 1.5% across the UK and 1.4% in London.
“With no-deal, there will be a knee-jerk reaction in which demand will fall [as will] prices over the first six months of the UK’s new status,” says one of the expert polled, Tony Williams of consultancy Building Vale.
“That said, life after a no-deal Brexit will revert to type.”
The other experts polled, who include buying agent and Twitter devotee Henry Pryor, have also predicted a weak outlook for the property market in the longer term regardless of Brexit’s outcome.
“Despite the new PM and team in government there are big icebergs ahead, not least the apparent willingness to leave the EU without a deal,” says Pryor. “This is likely to spook the markets before it reassures them.”
The survey, which was completed last week, also predicts an exodus of overseas buyers and investors from the UK, a trend already underpinned by this week’s decision by international high-end agency Engel & Volkers to exit its sole London branch.