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House prices ‘may drop £50K’ by end of next year

Analysis by Confused.com reveals average house prices might fall by more than £50,000 before the end of 2024.

David Callaghan

New research reveals that house prices in the UK are estimated to drop by an average of £50K by the end of next year.

Mortgage experts at comparison website Confused.com did a ‘deep dive’ into the latest housing market data to reveal what the average cost of a home will look like in 2024.

The average house price in the UK currently stands at £246,575.

Toughest challenge

Looking forward to next year, the price is predicted to fall, averaging £201,495 by this time next year, and an estimated £195,652 by the end of 2024.

For many, saving the initial deposit on a home can be the toughest challenge of getting on the property ladder. In the UK, the average deposit (10%) needed to purchase a house currently totals £24,658.

In 2024, the average deposit is set to fall by over £4K by Q3, and by the end of the year, even further to £19,565.

The UK region with the lowest deposit is the North East with first-time buyers (FTBs) needing to save £30,198.

Other findings:
  • Kensington and Chelsea, London, recorded the highest FTB house price of £1.2 million in 2023.
  • Thanet in Kent has seen the largest year-on-year increase in FTB buyer prices since 2013 (8.3%).
  • Elmbridge in Surrey recorded the greatest difference between FTB property prices and overall house prices at 43.9%.

Earlier this week, Knight Frank issued a more gloomy forecast for house prices this year, saying they will fall 7%, and a further 4% in 2024.

The agency had previously said there would be 5% drop in 2023, and a similar reduction next year.

October 5, 2023

3 comments

  1. Absolute trash… again. With the bank pausing rate rises it doubled our viewings in a week. If they do slide further in ’24 it won’t be by much, maybe a few percent or so. Too many people haven’t moved and want to….it’s just a question of finance costs. When rates drop expect a rapid reversal.

  2. What rubbish. The bottom of the market will be Christmas with prices starting to rise again by end of March. Peak to trough will be 10-12% with a 5-6% bounce in the 12 months from March 2024 to March 2025. Naturally as the Ladn Registry House Price index runs approximately 5 months behind point of sale prices this data won’t be seen by many until several months after it happens. So keep an eye on Rightmove data as it’s the only indication of what’s happening at the sharp end of the market. Other than talking to your Estate Agent of course!!

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