The property market will not settle down to its normal patterns of supply and demand until September at the earliest, estate agency Knight Frank says.
Its Head of Residential Research Tom Bill (pictured) says although the stamp duty holiday is due to begin winding down in June and therefore July is likely to be quieter for estate agencies, the property market will continue motoring.
Bill says this is because fewer people will be able to, or be keen to, take summer holidays overseas this year, leaving them free to continue their home moving plans.
He says 2021, instead of featuring Spring and Autumn peaks, has divided in to four quarters by the Stamp Duty holidays and its subsequent extension.
The first quarter saw the false start of a Stamp Duty holiday that was deferred four weeks before it was due to expire at the end of March. The second quarter will bring the end of the holiday for many in June while the third quarter will see the tapered rate disappear in September. There will be no holiday during the final quarter.
The Knight Frank figures show huge changes in property sales volumes this year including a 36% decline after the first stamp duty holiday deadline in March before it then picked up again.
“The impact of Stamp Duty on transaction numbers is clear. Indeed, there are parallels between 2016 and 2021, with both years experiencing a spike in March followed by a drop in April, as the chart below shows,” says Bill.
“Ahead of the Stamp Duty holiday expiring on 30 June, there is every reason to believe there will be a second large spike in transactions this month.”