Doomed? Housing secretary says job ‘on the line’ over housing target
BBC Panorama investigation into the Government’s housebuilding plans has found there is "absolutely no way" it will succeed in its 1.5m new homes target.
Housing Secretary Steve Reed (pictured) says his job should be ‘on the line’ over the Government‘s 1.5m new homes pledge, but two leading experts have told last night’s BBC Panorama that he is going to fail.
Prof Paul Cheshire, who has advised previous governments on planning policy, told the programme that there was “absolutely no way” it would succeed.
Neil Jefferson of the Home Builders Federation warned the target was “looking increasingly distant”, and that housebuilding is “flatlining” at around 200,000 new homes a year, instead of the 300,000 annually required.
Reed certain
However, when interviewed, Reed insisted he would “absolutely” meet the goal and claimed that the widespread scepticism would make “celebration all the sweeter” when he hit it.
And he added that the Government will force councils to adopt a local plan within 30 months instead of the current average of seven years.
One of the biggest obstacles that was flagged by the programme, though, was the ‘grey belt’. The Government created the concept to make planning easier on low quality green belt land, but has left it to each local authority to decide which sites qualify. Prof Cheshire called this a serious missed opportunity. “They left it to the fuzziness of the planning system and therefore to local lobbying, and it won’t happen.”
Treasury push
To make Reed’s task even harder to achieve, the Treasury is currently planning a 3,000% increase in Landfill Tax on soil removal, which could add up to £50,000 to the cost of building a home.
Government sources told The Times the move was already causing friction in Whitehall. One source said the Housing Department had been “blindsided” by the Treasury’s plans and was trying to get them “killed off”.
You can watch the documentary on the BBC’s iPlayer.
Steve Reed’s chutzpah is either courageous and admirable or emblematic of an unprepared, delusional Government that thinks it just has to say the words “prioritise growth”, “zero carbon” and “planning reform” and lo, the UK will be transformed.
The landfill tax, like the new extremely tight insulation and ventilation rules – with absolutely nothing expected of the vastly-higher number of existing houses – will just add to builders’ knowledge that fewer and fewer parts of England are viable for any housebuilding. Rayner requiring 50% social housing on these “grey belt” sites is also emblematic of the Government’s approach. Whatever it might offer with planning reform (albeit for large developers only), it will more than take away in the form of increased taxes.
The Government will no doubt try and fix the numbers and shift the blame when they finally realise 1.5 million homes is impossible. Existing planning permissions will be added to the £1.5 million total. Always-“greedy” developers will be blamed for not investing enough in new employees and constructive capacity. Private landlords will be blamed for not buying the completed units, irrespective of financial viability. Housing Associations will be blamed for refusing to buy S106 units because they are focusing on retro-fitting their existing properties, to meet the government’s own EPC and anti-mould ventilation obligations. The banks will be blamed for demanding that developers demonstrate 17.5-20% gross development margin, despite the government’s own heavy taxes in the form of CIL, S106, BNG. SUDS, Grenfell taxes etc etc etc. Councils will be blamed for restricting the flow of viable sites and imposing “planning inflation” on all applications, no matter how small. It’s the usual story of setting a target and claiming the credit if the target is achieved because of other people’s hard work, or blaming those same people if the target fails.