Mortgage rates ‘set to fall’, but market still volatile, warns expert

Ray Boulger says borrowing costs will probably come down despite another interest rates hike, however, nothing is certain.


Mortgage rates could fall further despite the latest Bank of England increase, but there is still uncertainty about which way it will go, according to a financial expert.

Ray Boulger, Senior Manager, John Charcol

Ray Boulger, senior mortgage technical manager at brokers John Charcol, told The Neg there is a good chance that interest rates have peaked at 4.25% as inflation is more under control.

But he warns: “The market is so fluid and volatile,” and points to a fall in international gilt rates as an example of how different factors can influence what happens.

“There is a lot of nervousness in the banking sector. Gilts are usually one of the most secure investments,” he says.

More competitive

The Bank of England raised the base interest rate again last week by 0.25% to 4.25%, which was the eleventh consecutive increase.

“Over the next couple of weeks the banks will take the opportunity to boost their market share”

“Despite the bank rate going up I think mortgage rates will come down. Over the next couple of weeks the banks will take the opportunity to boost their market share and make themselves more competitive,” he says.

Boulger also believes that lenders will be more generous with their criteria, and ‘stress tests’ will be less stringent.

Buy-to-let investors may find it easier to meet the requirements for borrowing, he says.

A difficult decision for mortgage borrowers who are coming off fixed rates will be whether to take a tracker or fixed rate loan, Boulger says.

Many homeowners are on five-year fixed rates which will end in the next three or four years, he says, which means the effect on the housing market will be felt for at least that long.

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