Many experts have been predicting a surge in first-time buyer (FTB) activity during the coming months but as sales must be completed by the April 1st to beat the Stamp Duty deadline there is little time left to secure a new home, it has been claimed.

Robert Gardner (pictured), Nationwide‘s Chief Economist, points out that despite this deadline ‘full stop’, the stamp duty change is still having a marked effect on the housing market and will lead to a jump in transaction volumes over the next few months.

The rush to buy has also meant smaller properties saw some of the highest price growth in 2024 – flats had their best year since 2021, with a 4.0% rise, and semi-detached properties were up 3.4%

Upcoming changes to Stamp Duty are likely to generate volatility.”

Gardner says: “Upcoming changes to Stamp Duty are likely to generate volatility, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax.

“This will lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025 (especially in March) and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes.

“This will make it more difficult to discern the underlying strength of the market.

Steady recovery

“But, providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth.

“The latter is likely to return to the 2-4% range in 2025 once Stamp Duty-related volatility subsides.”