Confidence in the UK housing market weakened in February as renewed geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty have weighed on buyer sentiment, according to the RICS latest survey.

Its data shows new buyer enquiries continued their decline, with the net balance slipping to -26% from -15% in January, while agreed sales remained subdued at -12%. Near-term sales expectations also softened, with a net balance of -2%.

The longer-term outlook, however, is more positive, with a net balance of +17% of respondents still expecting sales activity to rise in the next 12 months.

Prices flat

RICS also reports that national house prices were broadly flat in February. The headline price net balance was -12%, which is only slightly weaker than the previous month, although regional differences are still pronounced.

London (-40%), the South East (-24%) and East Anglia (-26%) continue to have the most significant downward pressure, while Northern Ireland, Scotland and the North West of England are still reporting firmer price trends.

Tim Green FRICS of Green & Co. (Oxford) Ltd told RICS: “The best early sign of activity in 2026 is the increased number of properties coming to the market. The recovery is likely to be led from the first-time buyer range, but despite a few green shoots, Spring has not quite arrived yet.”

Ian Perry FRICS of Perry Bishop added that there were: “Definite green shoots across the board, although the Iran conflict may have a negative effect.”

February’s survey highlights renewed volatility in the market.”

RICS Head of Market Research & Analytics, Tarrant Parsons (main picture), said: “February’s survey highlights renewed volatility in the market. While activity indicators at the start of the year suggested a tentative improvement, the deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop has clearly weighed on confidence.

“The recent rise in oil and energy prices has also increased the likelihood that mortgage rates will remain higher for longer. As a result, near-term expectations have softened. Although the twelve-month outlook remains positive overall, maintaining that trajectory will depend on the recent spike in inflationary pressures easing in the months ahead.”

Industry reacts

Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank:

“Demand had been recovering after the uncertainty caused by November’s Budget, but the Middle East conflict will dampen sentiment during a traditionally busy period for housing transactions.

“People will still need to move, but geopolitical instability will increase the mood of hesitation, while rising mortgage rates due to energy price spikes will curb spending power.

“That said, a weak labour market is one reason that the underlying case for multiple rate cuts this year still stands, and the longer-term impact on buyers and sellers hinges on how long the disruption lasts.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS Residential Chairman:

“Interestingly, this survey, like most others, does not reflect the particular geopolitical uncertainties prevailing over the past week or so.

“Even before that, it is clear the market was in a cautious state. Confidence has definitely improved this year compared with the end of last but remains relatively fragile and won’t be helped by worries that inflation and interest rates may not have peaked after all, as was expected only a few weeks ago.

“On the ground, we have seen no sharp reactions one way or the other with all says agreed proceeding other than for non-property related market reasons.”