Property deal numbers fall by more than 40%
The latest transaction figures from HMRC show a big drop from last year, but a small monthly rise.
Property deal numbers fell 41% in March, exactly one year after a major spike ahead of a Stamp Duty deadline.
However, the latest figures from HMRC show the seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transactions was 1% higher than February.
In March 2026, there were 104,070 completed deals, 41% lower than March 2025, HMRC says.
And the non-seasonally adjusted estimate of transactions in March was 101,070, 39% lower than March 2025, but 16% higher than February 2026.
There was a large peak in transactions in March last year and a subsequent drop in April caused by transactions brought forward ahead of the Stamp Duty threshold reductions.
Growing backlog
Meanwhile, the latest research by comparison platform GetAgent reveals that estate agents are facing a growing backlog of unsold homes.
The proportion of stock being converted into sales has fallen across almost every region of the market during the past year.
In England, the average monthly sales turnover rate has fallen from 17% in April 2025 to 14% in April 2026.
The pace at which homes are selling has clearly slowed over the last year.”
Colby Short, Co-Founder and CEO at GetAgent, says: “At a headline level, there’s still plenty of activity in the market, but the pace at which homes are selling has clearly slowed over the last year.
“That’s leaving many agents with pipelines that look healthy on paper, but take longer to convert into completed deals, which puts real pressure on time, resources and ultimately cashflow.”
Industry reaction
Andrew Lloyd, MD at Search Acumen, says: “Today’s property figures add a final sting to what many in the industry have been calling ‘Awful April’.
“By historic standards, this slowdown in deals is significant at a particularly delicate moment for the market. Today’s transaction data matters because it answers a simple question: are we pausing or stalling?
“So far, the signs point to hesitation. The housing market is absorbing an extraordinary number of shocks at once.”
March 2026 housing transactions have returned to earth after last year’s scramble for the exit.”
Anthony Codling, MD Equity Research at RBC Capital Markets, says: “March 2026 housing transactions have returned to earth after last year’s scramble for the exit.
“At 104,070 seasonally adjusted transactions, the UK market looks almost normal – 5% above the five-year average and 1.3% up month-on-month.
“But context is everything. The 41% year-on-year collapse isn’t a sign the housing market has fallen off a cliff, it’s the ghost of April 2025’s Stamp Duty threshold changes.”
Initial shock
Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, says: “The impact of the Middle East conflict on the UK housing market is now unmistakeable.
“The 41% drop in transactions in March came at a time when momentum is normally building. The initial shock has faded but mortgage rates have jumped around in recent weeks given the confused outlook around the length of the conflict and to what extent it could escalate.”
