Property sales dip but are still up on last year, new figures reveal

Latest housing transaction statistics from HMRC show the market is holding up, with figures revealing a slight dip in the last month but an increase from last year.

Headline findings from the latest data are:

• Provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in October is 110,850, 29% higher than October 2021 and 3% lower than September
• Provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in October is 108,480, 38% higher than October 2021 and 2% higher than September

Levels of current monthly property transactions remain similar to late 2019, before the Covid pandemic, the Government says.

But recent increases in mortgage rates are unlikely to have had any impact yet on these statistics.

Year on year comparisons for residential transactions should be treated with caution because there was significant forestalling activity in September 2021.

‘Severe hit’ – reaction

Jason Tebb, CEO of OnTheMarket, says: “Even in challenging conditions, those serious about moving and who need to move continue to do so as the aspiration to buy property remains.

“Our own data indicates an increase in volume of new properties going under offer within the first month of marketing in October, with 60% of properties sold STC within 30 days of being advertised for sale (up from 53% the previous month),” he says.

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “In our offices, we are still seeing some new business slowly emerging, despite taking a severe hit from the rise in mortgage rates and cost of living.

“Looking forward we expect transaction numbers to decrease slowly as more buyers become accustomed to the new norm.”

Simon McCulloch, chief commercial and growth officer at Smoove, says: “While the latest figures from HMRC are encouraging, they also suggest that recent headwinds are yet to fully feed through to buyer activity.

“The effects of recent increases in mortgage rates are likely to only be seen in HMRC’s statistics in the coming months. The recessionary environment and the gloomy forecast set out in the Autumn Statement will also provoke caution among many prospective buyers.”