REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES ANALYSIS: Northern Ireland reveals record rises

The latest analysis of country and regional data shows how average annual property price increases have performed since 2005.

regional property price update Northern Ireland mapAverage property price increases in Northern Ireland have failed to keep pace with inflation since 2005, but are showing the strongest growth on a quarterly and year-on-year basis.

The data for each country is quite stark and doesn’t seem to be differing that much over time. Average annual increases suggest that property prices across the other three nations are keeping up with or at least matching property price inflation (+3.6% for England, +3% for Wales and +4% for Scotland).

country property priceThis is a far cry from the heady days of vast annual price increases 2000-2005 where we saw the different countries’ property prices increase by double digits.

As we head into 2025, the huge growth we saw 20 years ago, which drove the outdated property statistic: “property prices double every 10 years”, just isn’t happening anymore. We are lucky to see a few per cent up year-on-year, even taking into account the pandemic ‘boom’.

Overall, with wages continuing to rise higher than house prices, this is great at helping properties to become more affordable over time.

property prices by country december

Local expertise for each country is essential when looking at how the property market is performing. This is especially the case in the likes of Scotland and Wales where areas are as diverse as the English Regions.

Northern Ireland housing market

Halifax

“Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK, rising by +6.8% on an annual basis in November. Properties in Northern Ireland now cost an average of £203,131.”

Scottish housing market

Halifax

“Once again Scotland saw a more modest rise in house prices compared to the rest of the UK, property here now costs £208,957, +2.8% more than the year before.”

E.survScotland maintains upward momentum

“Our data shows this month that average house prices in September grew by a modest £400 (0.2%) compared with August. The increase took average prices above £226,600 for the first time, meaning that Scotland’s housing market hit a new peak for the fifth time this year.

“Notwithstanding the improving backdrop of the cost of living, the Scottish market appears subdued in September, with fourteen local authority areas reporting rising prices in the month whilst eighteen saw price falls.

“This is a limited and bumpy recovery to date, with prices up by only 2-3% on a year-on-year basis in recent months. The data does not yet reflect any impacts on buyer and seller confidence from the budget, which will become evident over the coming months and it will be interesting to see if mortgage pricing continues to harden as swap rates have risen.

“The Bank of England Base Rate cut was helpful for affordability and will doubtless ease some home owners’ payments but it is unlikely to provide a significant boost to home buyers.”

Regional property price tracking

regional property price picture

Mostly the indices agree that we are seeing pretty much all regions move into positive territory for house prices. What is apparent is that in the North East and West we see the biggest spread of rises versus other regions.

– North East: price rises range from 2.6% YoY according to Zoopla through to 6.9% for Home.co.uk.

– North West: price rises range from 1.8% YoY, according to Rightmove, through to 5% growth reported by Nationwide.

regions up and down (1)This could be a different mix of recorded properties or issues with the areas/types of properties the indices are tracking.

In these regions, you tend to see a much bigger range of highs and lows for property prices than other regions so that could why there is such a big differential.

However, the key take away is how important reporting individual property data is for the North and not relying on ‘averages’, which can severely mislead buyers, sellers, and investors.

Commentary on the regional performance by indices

Home.co.uk        

“Seasonal price dips were observed in most English regions and Wales. However, prices continued to rise in Scotland and the North West over the last month, while in London they remained unchanged.

“The North East holds its top position in regional property market growth; the year-on-year gain increased to 6.9%. In second place is Yorkshire at 4.2%.

“The East of England is the worst performing region, indicating an increase of just 0.1% over the last twelve months.”

Zoopla

House price inflation has now turned positive across all regions and countries of the UK, with the fastest price gains registered in Northern Ireland.”

“House price inflation has now turned positive across all regions and countries of the UK, with the fastest price gains registered in Northern Ireland (6.3%) and the North West region (2.9%). Price inflation remains below 1% across southern England, where affordability pressures remain a drag on house price growth.

“This north-south divide is evident at a local level, with the fastest price rises registered in the Oldham (OL, 3.7%), Wigan (WN, 3.9%), and Belfast (BT, 6.5%) postal areas. In contrast, modest price falls are still being recorded in pockets of southern England led by Ipswich (IP, -1.1%), Truro (TR, -1.2%) and Dartford (DT, -1.2%).”

annual house price inflation (1)

Halifax

“House prices in the North West recorded the strongest growth of any region in England, up +5.9%, compared to the previous year, with properties now costing an average of £237,045.

“Properties in the West Midlands also saw strong growth, increasing +5.5% on an annual basis to an average house price of £257,982.

“London retains the top spot for the highest average house price in the UK, at £545,439, up +3.5% compared to last year.”


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