PROPERTY MARKET ANALYSIS: Latest house prices compared in England, Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland
Kate Faulkner reviews the most recent property market data sets across the UK, revealing that price rises remain steady.
What’s more interesting is the local analysis from the e.surv on Scotland and The Principality for Wales. According to E.surv: “At a local authority level, the market saw increases in 15 areas” while in Wales “some local authorities saw decreases, such as Merthyr Tydfil, average prices in Bridgend exceeded £250,000 to hit a new peak.”
For Scotland, Wales and Northern Island, we monitor Halifax and E.surv.
Local expertise for each country is essential when looking at how the property market is performing. This is especially the case in the likes of Scotland and Wales where areas are as diverse as the English Regions.
Summary from the indices of the Scottish housing market
“Scotland saw a rise in house prices, a typical property now costs £205,264, +2.1% more than the year before.”
E.surv – Record high house prices for third month in a row
“Scotland’s residential property market gives us further cause for optimism this month as average home prices increased in May for the third month in a row. The market has remained remarkably resilient in recent years given the challenges it has faced but this month’s gain of nearly £600 (0.3%), represents the strongest performance for two years. This is a hat trick of record new house prices over the past three months.
“Our data shows that Scotland’s average house price is now well in excess of £225,000 and comfortably above its earlier peak in September 2023. Clearly, Scotland is enjoying an earlier and stronger revival than across most of England and Wales.
“At a local authority level, the market saw increases in 15 areas, and, with the onset of a new government, we expect market sentiment will further improve. The new government has already said it is supportive of the existing mortgage guarantee scheme which has been used to good effect in Scotland. Confidence will likely be further buoyed as the Bank of England begins to cut its base rate in the coming months.”
Summary from the indices of the Welsh housing market
“In Wales, house prices grew +3.4% to £221,102 – the highest price seen since October 2022.”
Principality Building Society – Average house price in Wales rises after five quarters of consecutive decline
“The second quarter of 2024 has brought much-needed positive news to the Welsh housing market. After five consecutive quarters of declining house prices, we are now seeing a recovery.
“The average price of a home sold in Wales rose to £236,369 in the second quarter of 2024, rising 3.1.% but still -2.4% below the year-earlier level and still 5% below its peak of £249,000 at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, a majority of local authorities reported higher prices in Q2 for the first time since 2022, resulting in the most positive market conditions for two years.
“While some local authorities saw decreases, such as Merthyr Tydfil, average prices in Bridgend exceeded £250,000 to hit a new peak.”
Summary from the indices of the Northern Ireland housing market
“Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK, rising by +5.8% on an annual basis in July, up from +4.1% the previous month and the highest increase since February 2023. The average price of a property in Northern Ireland is now £195,681.”
Regional property prices tracking
Regionally, we are seeing a stronger picture this month than last, with most regions showing positive property growth – although Zoopla and Nationwide property market reports still show it’s a mixed picture out there.
The top growth year on year from the different indices show the highest rise was recorded in the North East by Home.co.uk while the biggest fall was recorded by Nationwide, -1.8% in the East of England.
Commentary on the regional property price performance
Zoopla – House price inflation static, still negative in south
“UK house prices edged 0.1% higher over the last 12 months, increasing by just £310 to £265,600. Annual price inflation ranges between -1.2% in the East of England to +3.9% in Northern Ireland.
“House prices have increased across all regions and countries of the UK over the first half of 2024. We expect house prices to continue to increase slowly over the second half of 2024.”
“The North East is the new regional property market growth leader with a year-on-year gain of 4.8%, while the South West is now the worst performing region with a loss of -1.2% over the same period.”
“The year-on-year price comparisons have moved favourably across all parts of England and Wales, albeit that the improvements have been noticeably more limited in the West and East Midlands.
“Signs of a north-south divide in this data are becoming much less clear. Whilst prices in North East and North West England are rising the most strongly (by more than 1% year-on-year), there has been a particularly sharp improvement in the South West, where prices are now also in positive territory. Wales too has seen a significant improvement compared with three months ago, even though currently prices continue to nudge lower.
“Price trends across much of southern England are similar to the national picture and, early indications for July are that London is no longer pulling down overall price growth in England and Wales.
“The North East and North West have the highest proportion of unitary authorities and counties reporting higher prices year-on-year, and there is every reason to think that both regions will see higher prices year-on-year when we report on July. Wales has the next strongest reading, although the early signs are that the country will continue in slightly negative territory.”
“House prices in the North West recorded strong growth, up +4.1%, compared to the previous year, properties here now average £232,489. The only region or nation to record a fall across the UK was Eastern England.
“Properties here now average £330,282, down -0.4% on an annual basis. London continues to have the most expensive property prices in the UK, now averaging £536,052, up (+1.2%) compared to last year.”
