Hopefully, with a new government in place, inflation appearing to be under control, utility prices starting to fall to more manageable levels and interest rates rumoured to be falling in August/September, the worst that world-wide events and economic curve balls can throw at the property market is hopefully over and we can start getting back to pre-pandemic norms.

What we are looking for is annual sales of around 1.2 million and property prices to rise at least in line with inflation. Predictions wise we still may have to wait until 2025/26 to achieve these norms, but we are at least, for now, heading in the right direction.

Latest predictions from the indices and other forecasters

Regional forecast variations range from 1% to 4% (Savills and JLL).

Halifax

“While in the short-term the housing market is delicately balanced and sensitive to the pace of change to Base Rate, based on our current expectations property prices are likely to rise modestly through the rest of this year and into 2025.”

E.surv   

“Going forward, in light of the Labour win, we should see further improvements in buyer sentiment as the government sets out to deliver on its manifesto pledges. These are ambitious and will take time but include creating a number of New Towns, rethinking the green belt, mandatory targets for Local Authorities, a Freedom to Buy Scheme, and a pledge to lower the stamp duty threshold for first-time buyers in April 2025.

“Also, we may now see action from the Bank of England on interest rates, given the improving inflation picture, which will improve affordability for buyers.”

Interest rates hold the key

Zoopla  

“Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for the sales market really depends on the outlook for mortgage rates which are a function of the outlook for interest rates. Any reductions in the base rate over the summer and into the autumn will deliver a boost to market sentiment and sales activity, even though the impact on fixed rate mortgages will likely be more muted.

“Based on city forecasts for base rates, we expect mortgage rates to remain in the 4-4.5% range going into 2025. This is sufficient to support sales volumes and low, single digit levels of house price inflation. House prices in the south of England are expected to continue to under-perform the UK average as they realign with incomes. Real income growth is the key to supporting sales and demand into 2025.”