PROPERTY MARKET ANALYSIS: Good news all round for supply and demand
Kate Faulkner examines the latest data to reveal that supply and demand in the property market is now heading towards pre-Covid levels.
The news on supply and demand in the property market is good – for both. As is the news that sales agreed is better than last year and even heading towards pre-Covid levels.
Some great data from TwentyCi shows how incredibly hard the job of any services involved in buying and selling is. The charts below show how much sales fell in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the ‘recovery’ in the same quarter in 2024.
This data shows how super difficult it is to run a business around buying/selling homes, especially when it typically takes several years, if not more, to train the experts needed to help people move. It also shows how differently regions can perform – making it tough for some agents or other services in some areas to achieve targets if ‘averages’ are applied.
It’s one of the issues in the property market that I don’t think we always talk about as much as we should. Working out how we can work together to find ways of running a successful business, despite the fact that transactions and indeed value is pretty much out of our control.
Latest supply and demand data from each of the indices
“Over the last four weeks, the number of sales being agreed between buyers and sellers has remained stable at 6% above the same period last year, emphasising that those in the market are generally continuing with their plans despite the surprise General Election. Buyer demand, as measured by the number of people contacting estate agents about homes for sale, has also remained steady and is currently 5% higher than last year.
“However, one area of activity that does appear to have seen some impact from the election being called is the number of new sellers coming to market, mainly due to some hesitancy at the top end. In the last two weeks, the overall number of new sellers coming to market is just 1% higher than the same period a year ago. By contrast, during the two weeks prior, the number of new sellers deciding to come to market was a more robust 6% above 2023’s level, highlighting a slight drop off in new seller activity as news of the surprise election announcement caused some hesitancy.
This dip is most prominent in the top-end sector, covering the largest five-bedroom-plus properties and four-bedroom detached houses. The number of new sellers choosing to come to market in the last two weeks in this sector is 3% lower than the same period a year ago, compared with being 11% higher than 2023 in the previous two weeks.”
75% of this years’ sales are completed or in progress.”
“The 4-5 months between a sale being agreed and then completed means we have a good view into the sales pipeline for 2024. Our data shows the market is still on track for 1.1m sales this year.
“Three quarters of these 1.1m expected sales have either been completed, or they have been agreed and are working their way toward a completion when the buyer gets the keys and can move in. There are still over a quarter of a million sales yet to be agreed that we expect to complete by the end of 2024.
“The 1.1m sales is 10% higher than 2023 but still below the 20-year average. It is positive that sales are rising despite higher borrowing costs and shows more realism on the part of sellers and renewed, cautious confidence amongst buyers.”
Latest transaction data from Chris Watkin and TwentyEA
The beauty of this data is that it is much more up to date than other indices, so reflects the current property market more accurately. Having said that, the conclusion is pretty much the same as other indices: both listings and agreed sales area up and looking good versus pre-pandemic averages.
What are the current hottest and coldest postcodes?
At a more local level, The Advisory shows which postcodes are hot and cold in the property market.
For example, in M18 (Manchester), 75% of the properties on the market are under offer, in contrast, WC2 and N1C (London) being the worst performers according to this index, with only 10% of properties on the market under offer.
Manchester, Bristol, Stockport and Sheffield are reported as having some of the busiest markets, while London, Liverpool, Birmingham and Padstow have some of the slower ones.
To find out what the Propcast market is reporting about your local postcode visit: House Selling Weather Forecast here.
