HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND: 2024 rivals 2021 for buyer and seller numbers

The latest data on supply and demand is looking fabulous! Not something I’ve been able to say for a while!

As the super data from Christopher Watkins and TwentyEA shows (see tables), listings are good and are turning into healthy transaction numbers. And, although it’s busy, home moving services are hopefully not under quite as much pressure as they were in 2021.

What’s incredible about these numbers is that we are seeing the second best year to 2021, despite the fact that for most, property prices aren’t rising rapidly and rates haven’t actually fallen that much – now at 4.75% versus a high of 5.25%.

It shows that, although we will always see ‘booms and busts’ the property market is able to survive pretty shocking economic issues that in the past would have substantially reduced transactions and prices.

Supply and demand data from each of the indices:

Zoopla – Sales pipeline largest for 4 years & up 30% on last year

“The sustained growth in new sales over the year has led to the largest sales pipeline for 4 years. We estimate that there are currently 306,000 homes with a sale agreed, which are working their way through the buying process towards completion. In number terms, this is 62,000 (or 26%) higher than a year ago.

“The total sales value of homes in the pipeline is £113bn. This is 30% higher than this time last year, when a spike in mortgage rates hit buyer demand, reducing the number of sales agreed over 2023 H2.

“The momentum in new sales looks set to continue into December. Many recent sales will turn into as sales completions in H1 2025.”

First-time buyers – the largest buyer group in 2024

“The growth in sales is being driven by a combination of first-time buyers (FTBs) and existing homeowners who delayed their moving decisions until borrowing costs fell and the outlook improved.

“FTBs are on track to be the biggest buyer cohort in 2024, accounting for 36% of all sales. This is followed by existing homeowners buying with a mortgage (31%), comprising both upsizers and those relocating.

“Cash buyers are on track to account for 27% of sales – a mix of homeowners who have paid off mortgages and some mortgage free investors. Landlords buying homes with buy-to-let mortgages are set to account for 7% of purchases, with their volumes hit by higher mortgage rates.

“The rapid growth in rents and the decline in mortgage rates have shifted the renting vs buying dynamics and supported more FTB purchases. The average mortgage repayments for a typical UK first-time buyer home are 17% cheaper than renting, compared to a difference of just 2% a year ago, when mortgage rates were higher.”Rightmove

“The latest snapshot of sales activity shows that the number of sales being agreed is now 29% ahead of the same period last year. Therefore, sales activity has not only bounced back from the low of last year but has continued on an upward trajectory. There is also a healthy level of underlying buyer demand as people continue to plan their next move. The number of people contacting agents about homes for sale is up by 17% compared with this time last year.

“However, despite this strong housing market activity, the number of new properties coming to the market, and the time they are taking to sell are both increasing, resulting in an increase in available homes for sale. This reflects that some aspiring buyers are still priced out of the market. The number of available homes for sale is 12% higher than at this time last year, but also the average number of homes for sale per estate agent branch is at its highest since 2014.

“Competition for buyers is particularly intense at the top-end of the market, where the number of four-bedroom detached houses and five-bedroom-plus homes available for sale is 17% ahead of last year. It’s a buyer’s market, reinforcing the need for sellers to price competitively while affordability is stretched and choice is high.”