Halifax and industry leaders blame weakening market on ‘Mini-Budget’

Lender says Mini-budget and financial downturn are to blame for drop in house prices as do leading agents and experts.

Halifax house price

Vendors and their estate agents face a new pricing challenge after Halifax revealed that house prices dropped by 0.4% last month, or £1,000 per property on average.

Price falls appear to be accelerating as October’s drop is larger than September slip of 0.1%.

kim kinnaird halifaxBut these are just monthly figures – the overall direction of travel remains upwards as Halifax Mortgage boss Kim Kinnaird (pictured) points out.

“While the pace of annual growth also continued to ease, to +8.3% compared to +9.8% in September, average prices remain near record highs,” she says.

“Though the recent period of rapid house price inflation may now be at an end, it’s important to keep this in context, with average property prices rising more than £22,000 in the past 12 months, and by almost £60,000 (+25.7%) over the last three years, which is significant.

“While a post-pandemic slowdown was expected, there’s no doubt the housing market received a significant shock as a result of the Mini-Budget which saw a sudden acceleration in mortgage rate increases.

“While it is likely that those rates have peaked for now – following the reversal of previously announced fiscal measures – it appears that recent events have encouraged those with existing mortgages to look at their options, and some would-be homebuyers to take a pause.”

What does the industry think?

Nicky Stevenson, MD of Fine & Country

“Momentum in the housing market cooled in October as the reverberations from the Mini-Budget were felt throughout the economy.

“Longer term, tax rises and increased borrowing costs will continue to slow activity as buyers adjust to changing circumstances in the lending market and the broader economy.

Iain Mckenzie image

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals

“House prices are now starting to simmer down, but the effect is less dramatic than might be expected considering the economic upheaval of the last few months.

“Much of the chaos from the Mini-Budget has been successfully navigated by the new Chancellor, but it’s clear that sentiment has shifted from the optimistic mood seen during the early summer.”

Jonathan Hopper, Garrington Property Finders

“We’re now seeing reductions in asking prices in most markets, as sellers compete to attract proceedable buyers.

“While demand has eased off as thousands of would-be buyers are forced into a painful recalculation of what they can afford, those buyers who need to move continue to do so – but are frequently asking for, and getting, significant price reductions.”

Jeremy Leaf, agent and former RICS residential chairman

“These comprehensive figures are particularly interesting as the modest monthly fall in house prices shows on the one hand the resilience of the market in the period leading up to the Mini-Budget, as well as the uncertainty which followed.

“Since then, we’ve seen on the ground a combination of those trying to take advantage of attractive mortgage offers and new buyers slowly emerging now mortgage rates are steadying and even starting to fall. But we are not seeing any collapse in pricing or sales agreed.”

Link to Stamp Duty featureAnthony Codling, Founder of Twindig

“House prices fell by £1,066 during October as they start to lose the battle against rising mortgage rates and living costs. The decrease is the largest drop since February 2021.”


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