It’s a rocky housing market at present, but there is some evidence to suggest things are about to pick up.

Property lending specialists Octane Capital studied mortgage approval trends over the last five years to build a picture of what to expect.

And over that period, mortgage approvals in September, October and November have been 7% higher than the overall average, making up 27% for the whole year, exceeding the winter months (26%) and summer (25%).

Spring tends to be the quietest period, as just 22% of approvals take place between April and June.

Tide turning

Mortgage approvals have fallen by 23.7% year-on-year, as there were just 633,400 over the past 12 months, down from 830,600.

In the past six months, approvals are 14.7% lower than the previous six months, at 291,600 compared to 341,800.

The tide may finally be turning however, Octane says, as things have gradually improved in the last two months.

Climbed

Approvals climbed by 3.2% in May and then by 6.9% in June, although the market still has a long way to go before it returns to full strength.

Since December 2021 activity has been curbed by 14 successive base rate increases from the Bank of England, taking it from 0.1% to 5.25%, in measures designed to curb inflation.

Autumn is historically the strongest time of the year.”

Jonathan Samuels, CEO at Octane Capital (main picture), says: “The mortgage market has had a mixed year, but activity could intensify in the months ahead.

“Autumn is historically the strongest time of the year, and the approval count has already improved over the summer months,” he says.

“Mortgage rates are steady, and in many cases now falling, which should help to spur on potential buyers.”