A controversial claim by the Conservative Party that almost 40% of new homes built by 2030 could be needed to accommodate new migration has sparked a political row about housing supply and immigration.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook estimates net migration will hit around 1.17 million people between 2026 and 2030. During the same period, the UK is forecast to deliver around 1.34 million new homes.

Using Office for National Statistics data on average household size, the Conservatives therefore estimate that accommodating those arrivals would require around 499,000 additional homes. It equates to about 37.1% of the homes expected to be built in the next four years, rising to 39.1% in 2030.

High levels of migration will have real consequences for rents and house prices.”

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp (pictured) says high levels of migration would have “real consequences for rents, house prices and who gets access to new homes”.

Labour has opened the door without any plan to deal with the consequences.”

He cites separate Government modelling that suggests migration-driven demand could add around £9,489 to the average house price.

Shadow Housing Secretary Sir James Cleverly added: “Labour can promise a building spree, but the OBR’s own figures show more than a third of those homes will be absorbed by migration before local families even get a look in.

“That is why young people feel permanently locked out, and local communities feel under strain.”

Pulling every lever

A Government spokesperson told the Mail: “We are pulling every lever to build 1.5 million homes, restore the dream of homeownership and end the housing crisis we inherited.

“This is alongside the biggest overhaul of Britain’s settlement model in 50 years, to tackle the unacceptably high levels of net migration in recent years, which under this government is down by nearly 70%.”