Budget causes fall in property transaction numbers

HMRC’s data shows that the number of housing transactions fell by 8% between October and November.

HMRC transactions and for sale signs

There was a total of 92,640 residential property transactions in November, which was 13% higher than November 2023 but an 8% drop from the previous month.

It should be noted, however, that October was an unusually busy month for the property market as optimism built over the direction of the base rate. Transactions were up by 42% when compared to October 2023 and by 10% from September.

The latest figures have generated a mixed reaction from the property industry.

Valuable insight

Amy Reynolds, head of sales, Antony RobertsAmy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “These figures offer valuable insight into overall activity and are a key indicator as to how the market is likely to shape up in early 2025.

“A dip in transaction volumes shows that higher borrowing costs and affordability pressures are inevitably impacting buyer activity. That said, this month we have been seeing a good number of market appraisals, which is often a precursor to a strong spring market.”

The full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in.”

Tomer Aboody
Tomer Aboody, MT Finance

Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says: “A quite significant increase in transaction numbers compared with this time last year shows how reduced interest rates have encouraged buyers and sellers to be active.

“Although we are still some way off the highs of previous years, the growing confidence in the market is promising.

“The full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around the spring, once the stamp duty holiday comes to an end.”

A much better indicator of market health than more volatile house prices”.

Jeremy Leaf

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “As HMRC records not just mortgaged but cash transactions too, these figures provide a much better indicator of market health than more volatile house prices.

“However, the length of time required to conclude a sale shows activity responded quite significantly to the Chancellor’s October Budget.

“Looking forward, the economic and political headwinds which have become more apparent since then mean we expect to see a softening in transaction numbers over coming months, particularly as first-time buyers find it increasingly difficult to take advantage of fast-disappearing stamp duty concessions.”

Elevated activity
Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops
Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops

And Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, comments: “November’s activity was particularly strong on an annual basis, but did struggle to keep up the pace after such a busy October. The Chancellor’s Autumn statement propelled the market into heightened activity.

“Although housing wasn’t the central focus, confirmation that the temporary Stamp Duty change will end in April has driven serious buyers to act. This looming cost adds another layer for consideration, especially with mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high.

“We expect this elevated level of activity to continue through the early months of 2025, as buyers push to complete their transactions ahead of the Stamp Duty deadline.”


What's your opinion?

Back to top button