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Yes, the ‘Boris Bounce’ really is happening, says leading research firm

There has been fierce debate over whether the market has picked up since the General Election, but figures from TwentyCI do point to a pick-up in activity.

Nigel Lewis

The expected uplift in the property market following the General Election and the road to Brexit subsequently being cleared is happening, it has been claimed.

But it is not just enthusiastic sales directors making the claim, but leading property industry research company TwentyCI, which has called the start of the ‘Boris bounce’.

When the property sales market over the past five weeks (from late December until the third week of January) is compared to the same period last year, the number of sales agreed SSTC is up by 6% and exchanges have increased by 3%.

In the prime market for homes for sale over £500,000, sales agreed SSTC are up by 10% and exchanges by 12%.

And in the rarefied strata of the super-prime market for homes over £1 million, the number of sales agreed have increased by 11% and the number of homes coming to the market are up by 17%

But the ‘Boris Bounce’ has yet to translate into new listings in other markets.”

TwentyCI says the number of homes being listed for sale is down 7% year-on-year overall and static in the prime market.

“Whilst we are not expressing a political opinion, government stability has been lacking for some time and this has not been good for the property market,” the company says.

It also quotes leading consumer researcher Joe Staton of GfK, who says: “There is a clear sense of change in consumer sentiment this month.”

“We haven’t seen such a robust increase in confidence about our economic future since the summer of 2016.”

London agency Chestertons has also reported a January uplift in figures released yesterday.  It says that between the 2nd and 12th January, sales enquiries were up on last year by 76%, while new buyer registrations and the number of offers being made on properties were up 15.6% and 43.7% respectively.

Read the TwentyCI report in full.

January 30, 2020

One comment

  1. Sentiment, for sure is very positive, buyers are looking and agents are optimistic and are selling, though every January is positive after the Christmas slow down.

    I personally met over 50 industry figures in January, and communicated with around 150 more, and all of them felt that 2020 was going to a good year, some a great year.

    As a real estate analyst I spend half of my time pouring over figures, looking at the macro and micro and looking for trends and answers, whilst AI and ML may replace me soon, nothing beats meeting and speaking with many people in the property sector to get a sense of the mood and sense of travel.

    Stuart Ducker’s recent TwentyCi report – The future of the property market – and what this means for your brand or agency, is a very balanced analytical piece. Whilst it is cautiously optimistic it also focuses on the great potential of focusing on the rental sector, and the tenants who of course are a great revenue stream, 70% of first time buyers are renters.

    Personally, I think 2020 may be a game of two halves, the first part until after the Spring market will be very good, but lack of stock may be a problem. Sellers may get the whip-hand if they have good stock in good areas to sell, but stock levels may become depleted, with cautious vendors playing the wait and see game.

    But, the market hinges on buyer confidence, and come early Autumn though Brexit is done, to paraphrase the blonde bombshell, in many ways it has just begun.

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