This month’s top performers when it comes to house price growth in the UK’s towns and cities are pretty similar to last month.

In the Land Registry top 5, Aberdeen and Milton Keynes are the exception, while Hometrack’s top performers see Manchester and Newcastle upon Tyne replace Sheffield and Cardiff.

Hometrack is around six weeks into the home buying and selling process and the Land Registry data is anything from a few months to six months or more out of date.

This means when prices are rising/falling, although still accurate from a historic perspective, the Land Registry data can report a fall when the actual market, now, is actually seeing a rise.

The two indices don’t always agree with each other though – especially as Aberdeen appears in the Land Registry top five with a house price growth of 6.2% YoY, but also in Hometrack’s lowest performers – with a fall of 1.8%. And it’s the same with Milton Keynes. Land Registry reports prices up 5.8% YoY, while Hometrack report prices are down by 1.7%.

Above inflation rises

Out of the 30 cities we track via the Land Registry, since 2005, property prices have only risen above the average annual 3.8% inflation rate in five cities/towns. These include:

– Manchester

– Cambridge

– Bristol

– London

– Brighton and Hove

With the exception of Edinburgh and Milton Keynes, where prices have risen at the same rate as inflation over time, the remaining towns and cities we track actually show that property prices, in many areas, have risen at less than inflation.

The following towns and cities price growth ‘on average’ are performing below inflation:

– Newcastle upon Tyne

– Aberdeen

– Belfast

– Southampton

– Liverpool

Broad variations

In addition to the Land Registry data, Zoopla has a fantastic chart this month, which is potentially worth adding to any instruction meeting, to show buyers and sellers why local agents need to be the prime source of property price (and rent) changes in an area. The chart shows that city property price changes are ranging from falls of nearly 3% in Ipswich to rises of nearly 4% in Belfast – that’s a 7% difference in performance. This is why country and even regional property price averages can severly mislead buyers, sellers and investors when they are deciding whether to buy or sell.

Zoopla explain the difference: “This variation is down to the absolute level of house prices and levels of affordability in the face of higher mortgage rates. Cities in coastal areas – and those that attracted an inflow of demand over the pandemic in the ‘race for space’ – are registering above-average price falls, as demand weakens, and these one-off pandemic factors fade.

“We expect the current variation in house price inflation to continue over 2024 as incomes and house prices realign with the greatest adjustment across London and southern England.“

Appendix: City/town property indices price tracking

For city/town tracking, we use Land Registry (government data) and Zoopla/Hometrack. The Land Registry data is useful because we can analyse how property prices have changed over time and this helps us to put today’s price information into context.

The Zoopla/Hometrack data is useful as they take into account the change in mix of property transactions during the pandemic to houses away from flats. This has meant the likes of the Land Registry and other indices have over exaggerated price changes year on year.