Housing market heading for big fall this year, economists warn
A survey of economists reveals that most believe a recession will have a major impact on house prices.
House prices will slump this year economists warn, as the market suffers a major correction.
The housing market will see its biggest decline since the financial crash in 2009, according to economic experts surveyed by The Times.
Rising mortgage costs and a likely recession are being blamed as the two main reasons for the looming situation.
Two thirds of the economists surveyed predicted prices will fall by more than 4 per cent, with most warning of near-double-digit drops.
Annual house price growth continued to slow sharply in 2022 with data from Nationwide reporting a fourth consecutive monthly fall.
Double-digit fall
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, says: “A double-digit price fall would not be surprising.
“If typical mortgage rates remain above 5 per cent, together with an unprecedented squeeze on household incomes, it is hard to see how house prices can avoid taking a significant hit in 2023.”
The Bank of England warned homeowners are facing an average £3,000 rise in mortgage payments this year.
Cheaper mortgage rates will help the housing market achieve a soft landing in 2023, Nationwide said, and avoiding forced sales will bolster its prospects further.
Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, said house prices were 30% overvalued based on affordability metrics. “The number of forced sales should be limited by the high share of fixed-rate mortgages and low peak in unemployment, but a correction in prices looks likely.”
The predictions come as the International Monetary Fund issued a warning that a third of the global economy would be in recession this year.
It is a correction in house prices not a major fall. Prices increased significantly due to low stock during 21/22 and now this has reversed. No major property crisis yet…although we do need a lot more foot fall and buyers to come back to the market and things will move on once more! There is a major crisis in the NHS though and that truly is something to worry about!
Like weather forecasters, economists consistently get it wrong but still manage to keep their jobs!