HMRC figures reveal booming home sales market

Property sales jumped 9% in September in a welcome boost to the market just after the Budget and its tax rises.

There were 91,820 transactions in the UK in September, a big increase on 84,300 the same month last year, HMRC’s seasonally adjusted figures show, a good showing for a seasonally busy period.

But there was only a 1% monthly increase from August to September, attributed by many to buyer nervousness ahead of this week’s budget, during which Chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced an immediate increase in Stamp Duty on buy-to-let properties from 3% to 5%.

Rebounded

Nicky Stevenson, MD at Fine & Country, says: “The property market gained momentum in September, with transaction numbers rising in line with predictions for an autumn boost.

“After a slight dip in August, buyer activity rebounded, and transactions were 9% higher than this time last year,” she says.

“Yesterday’s budget announcement from the Labour government, outlining a £40 billion tax increase plan, could influence the market as we head toward the end of 2024.”

Upward trajector

Anthony Codling, MD of Equity Research at RBC Capital Markets, says: “If we needed further proof that the UK housing market in on an upward trajectory, we got it today.

“If yesterday’s budget brings stability rather than volatility, we expect that housing transactions will continue to rise, as the pro-housing pro-growth Labour Party seeks to increase the supply of housing.”

Not dramatic

Amy Reynolds, Head of Sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “With the Budget not as dramatic as feared from a property perspective, the ‘wait and see’ approach we have seen from some buyers, who have been more cautious than usual given the economic backdrop, will hopefully now ease.

“That uncertainty has resulted in an increase in properties coming back on the market after fall-throughs. These fall-throughs are often due to buyer nervousness, which in many cases is unrelated to the property itself and rather a reflection of economic uncertainty and tightening financial conditions.”

Short delay

Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, says: “The short delay in transaction data shows us the immediate boost that the outcome of the election provided the housing market, with buyers pressing on with their searches amid falling interest rates and positive wage growth.

“Yet, transaction levels are becoming more stagnant month on month due to the lack of available stock on the market at this time which would enable more purchases,” he says.

“Despite yesterday’s theatrics in the Budget, the property market remains in largely the same position as before.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “Completed sales are a better gauge of market strength than more changeable house prices, not least because they include cash as well as mortgaged transactions.

“Although reflecting activity from a few months ago, the figures do show buyers and sellers were not fazed by the economic and political uncertainty prevailing at that time, which bodes well.

Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, says: “As we move towards the end of the year, it remains upbeat to witness a real transformation within the housing sector with an overall trend of growth.

“There are also potential positives hopefully still to come, with strong hints we may see a further dip regarding the base rates next week,” he says.

“However, there are some aspects contained within yesterday’s budget which are extremely disappointing, with first time buyers feeling the brunt, as the current stamp duty threshold is lowered back to £300,000 from next April being an example.”

Motivated

Matt Thompson, Head of Sales at Chestertons, says: “In September, sub-4% mortgage products as well as lower interest rates motivated house hunters to start or finalise their property search.

“This uplift in buyer interest enticed sellers to put their property up for sale sooner rather than later which provided buyers with a larger pool of properties to choose from,” he says.

“We currently have 17% more properties under offer than in 2020 and still register new house hunters entering the market. We expect this level of buyer activity to continue over the coming weeks, especially if the Bank of England announces another rate cut next week.”