There were 95,980 residential transactions in the UK in September, which is 1% higher than it was in September 2024 (seasonally adjusted), but there is no evidence of an autumn bounce, and much of the activity is a reflection of deals agreed earlier in the year rather than fresh demand.

HMRC property transaction data also shows non-seasonally adjusted transactions reached 102,420, 8% higher than September 2024 but 2% lower than August.

Frozen market

The property industry is currently reporting a ‘frozen’ market, especially at the top end, as buyers and sellers wait to see what new taxes Rachel Reeves has in store for the property market in her budget speech on November 26^th.

Amy Reynolds, Head of Sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “These transaction figures are steady, underlining what we’re seeing on the ground, with some buyers and sellers, particularly those at the higher end of the market, sitting tight ahead of the Budget.

Drawn-out uncertainty over potential tax changes is freezing activity and costing the Treasury in lost Stamp Duty.”

“Drawn-out uncertainty over potential tax changes is freezing activity and costing the Treasury in lost Stamp Duty. Stability, clarity and confidence are what the market needs most right now – we’ve already seen an exodus of wealthier Londoners moving abroad and, if that trend continues, it’s not just the housing market that will suffer but the wider UK economy.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, adds: “With transaction numbers hardly changed, buyers and sellers are shrugging off concerns about Budget content and a weakening labour market. Of course, these figures are a little dated, but confirm what we are seeing on the ground – sales are not collapsing or being drastically renegotiated. Underlying confidence remains but is on hold at least until the end of November.”

Wait and see

Tomer Aboody, Director of specialist lender MT Finance, says: “With the Budget coming up and more taxes on the horizon, this transaction data suggests that some are waiting before they make their move. Fearing a Mansion Tax, among other property taxes, many will wait to see if these come about before deciding whether it’s financially viable to move.”

Mark Harris, Chief Executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, notes: “Seasonally adjusted transaction numbers recovered slightly in September as stability and consistency, as far as interest rates are concerned, are encouraging activity and enabling borrowers to plan ahead with more confidence.

Mortgage costs falling

“A number of lenders have reduced their mortgage rates in recent days. While we’ve had five base rate cuts in the past 13 months, with more expected, the era of rock-bottom rates may be long gone, but borrowers seem to have adjusted to this.”

Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, comments: “Housing market activity has been flat in recent months, with demand supported by stable and broadly affordable mortgage rates.

 

“However, a two-speed market has developed as the Budget approaches, with buyers and sellers in higher-value markets hesitating due to uncertainty around property taxes. The risk is that momentum is gradually sapped from the wider market after 26 November as sentiment weakens and the tax landscape deteriorates.”

Strong fundamentals

Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, says: “Today’s transaction results are indicative of a housing market that has slowed in the run-up to the Budget, but remains fundamentally strong, driven by lifestyle purchases. Sales agreed are up 1% from the month previous, a modest increase but one that indicates market stability.

“At the top end, many £2 million-plus movers remain in a holding pattern ahead of any possible tax reforms, with calculators in hand to see if a reset in tax could shift the numbers and impact any immediate plans.

Any changes in taxation must be carefully calibrated against their economic benefit.”

He adds: “Any changes in taxation must be carefully calibrated against their economic benefit. Over the past decade, house prices have surged 60% while wages have barely climbed 10%. There is an argument that capturing net wealth through house values risks missing the mark in a nation that’s often asset-rich but cash-poor. We support fair reform, but it must encourage growth, mobility and aspiration in equal measure.”

And Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, says: “Today’s data shows that homebuyers are continuing to exchange from deals likely arranged in the early part of the year. A steady level of these transactions, up slightly from the usual summer lull, represents a broadly stable residential market.

a sharp drop in buyer activity

“But this is just half a story, with a sharp drop in current buyer activity pre-Budget likely to impact transactional data towards the end of the year. Currently, this is a market in freeze. The typical Autumn bounce is likely to remain lacklustre until tax reform is announced, and financial impacts can be weighted, with homeowners hoping Budget day does not turn into fright night.”