House sale transactions are set to ‘hold steady’ at 1.15 million next year, a leading estate agency has forecast.

The comments are from Hamptons, which also says house prices are set for only modest growth in 2026, with easing inflation and improving affordability tempered by taxation and policy headwinds and momentum shifting northwards.

The estate agency is expecting a 2.5% rise in prices across Great Britain by the last months of 2026, while transactions are expected to hold steady at around 1.15 million, supported mainly by necessity-driven moves.

signs of resilience

Commenting on the figures, Aneisha Beveridge (pictured), Head of Research, says: “The housing market has always mirrored the mood of the nation. While the headlines have been dominated by uncertainty, underneath it all, we’ve seen signs of resilience.

“Inflation is easing, mortgage rates are falling, and affordability is improving, which should support modest price growth next year.

London, which historically leads recoveries, is being held back by higher Stamp Duty and broader tax anxieties.”

“But it’s hard to ignore the growing drag of taxation and politics. London, which historically leads recoveries, is being held back by higher Stamp Duty and broader tax anxieties, locking some owners into their homes and others out of buying them.”

Beveridge adds that the next phase of the housing market will be shaped by “pragmatism – with policy playing an increasingly central role in determining who moves, when, and where.”

She also notes that, in a significant shift, by 2027, the North West and West Midlands are forecast to surpass the capital.

Hamptons expects political risk and higher borrowing costs to also slow overall price growth to 2.0% in 2027 and to 1.5% in 2028, with the more exposed prime end of the market remaining subdued.