ANALYSIS: Property supply and demand ‘looking good’
According to the forecasts, the property supply pipeline is looking as good as demand for the coming year, writes Kate Faulkner.
Based on the figures from last year and the ‘forward’ sales for this year, property supply is looking good as is demand. Interestingly, this isn’t impacting on prices yet as much as it may have done in the past, and that may be due to the ‘drag’ of affordability issues hitting some markets such as London.
However, the good news is there is plenty for agents to do for the first quarter of the year – complete on the existing transactions, continue to secure more listings and get more deals over the line to complete in Quarter two, post the end of the stamp duty holiday in England.
Summary of the latest UK property supply and demand data
“The number of sales being agreed is up by 22% compared with this time last year, while the number of new buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale is up by 13%.”
Strong year for sales volumes but prices remain muted
“Buyers and sellers returned to the housing market in larger numbers over 2024, having delayed moving decisions in the face of higher mortgage rates. More homes for sale and lower mortgage rates has driven a sustained growth in new sales over 2024, with the end of year sales pipeline at its highest for 4 years.
“This is positive for the number of home moves, but it is not resulting in faster house price inflation, as affordability remains a constraint on buying power.
“Our data shows buyers have become more price-sensitive in the final months of year due to growing uncertainty over the outlook for mortgage rates in 2025 and concerns over the wider impacts of the Budget. It will remain a buyer’s market in 2025, but we expect there to be sufficient house price inflation to support more home moves.”
Largest sales pipeline for 4 years
“Committed sellers and buyers have continued to agree new deals ahead of stamp duty changes in April 2025, but the window to complete a sale by 31 March 2025 will now be unachievable for most buyers. Sales agreed in the last 4 weeks are 23% higher than last year.
The average estate agent has agreed 6.1 sales per month over the first 11 months of 2024, the highest level since the pandemic boom in 2021.”
“It’s been a stronger year for new sales, thanks to a higher volume of homes being listed for sale, boosting buyer choice. The average estate agent has agreed 6.1 sales per month over the first 11 months of 2024, the highest level since the pandemic boom in 2021.
“There is a sizable pipeline of deals that have been agreed and are working their way to completion in the first half of 2025. We estimate this pipeline to comprise of 283,000 homes worth £104bn. This is 27% higher than a year ago by number, and 30% more by value. It’s the biggest end of year sales pipeline since December 2020 (£112bn).”
“The average number of new prospective buyers registered per member branch saw an uplift in November 2024 to 108 per member branch; this represents a new two year high.
“On average, there are now around 11.3 homes placed for sale per member branch in November 2024.
“In November 2024, stock levels nudged downward marginally with an average of 44 properties for sale at each member branch, compared to 49 the month before.”
