SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS: Transactions won’t return to average until 2025/26
Property market expert, Kate Faulkner, reports on the latest data, which suggests that the gap between supply and demand is closing.
Summary of the latest supply and demand data
Zoopla – Supply of homes for sale continues to grow
“One important feature of the housing market at present is that there are more homes for sale than at any point in the last six years. This is improving choice for home buyers and supporting more sales.
“The average agent has 33 homes for sale, 16% higher than a year ago and above the longer run average of 25.
“More supply means more sellers, most of whom are also buyers, motivated to move by a range of reasons. Many would-be movers are upsizers who are looking further afield to get the home and features they are looking for, while also seeking value for money.”
Sales agreed up 16% year-on-year
“A greater supply of homes for sale and more buyers has resulted in the number of sales being agreed is 16% higher than a year ago. A long-run index of weekly sales shows how sales in the first half of 2024 have been stronger than in 2023 and the pre-pandemic years.
“This is positive and reveals a more balanced housing market with sales volumes increasing but with greater stability in price inflation. Sales are up across all regions and countries of the UK.”
“The number of sales being agreed is now an encouraging 15% above the same period a year ago, when we were approaching the peak of mortgage rates. This compares to last month’s figure which was +6% above last year. This positive sales figure emphasises that serious home-hunters have been largely undeterred by the General Election and have been getting on with their moves.
“Similarly, the number of new sellers coming to market in the last four weeks is a steady 3% above last year, indicating that despite the uncertainty of an election, the vast majority of movers haven’t been put off.”
Latest transaction data from Chris Watkin and TwentyEA
The beauty of this data is that it is much more up to date than other indices, so reflects the current market more accurately. As you can see from the charts, listings are actually the highest they have been since 2017, while net sales are seeing similar high performance, albeit lower than the pandemic peak in 2021.
Overall, sales and buyers are in a good place over the coming months, especially if wages keep rising above inflation and mortgage rates keep falling.
