Property deal numbers hold up after successive falls
The latest HMRC data reveals a small increase in transaction numbers in June after two months of reduced totals.
Property transaction numbers stopped sliding last month after two successive falls, the latest HMRC data reveals.
The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in June was less than 1% up in June compared to May.
At 98,700, the total was marginally higher than the previous month’s figure of 98,460.
The number was 2% higher than June 2025, when figures returned to normal following a dip after the ending of a Stamp Duty holiday.
“The year-on-year increase in transactions in June 2026 likely represent an increase in underlying property market activity,” HMRC says.
The non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in June was 103,050, 6% higher than June 2025 and 11% higher than May 2026.
Industry reaction
Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, says: “The seasonal spring bounce is falling a little flat this year. Transaction numbers went sideways in June at a time of year when you would expect them to be increasing.
“Higher mortgage rates due to the Middle East conflict and uncertainty around property taxes have both kept demand in check, which was demonstrated by recent weak mortgage approval data.
“Andy Burnham ruled out a land value tax this week but activity and prices will be kept in check this summer as buyers and sellers speculate which other taxes will rise in the Budget.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, says: “An increase in property transactions is an encouraging sign that buyers and sellers continue to have the confidence to move despite ongoing economic and political change.
“Healthy transaction levels are essential, not only for the housing market, but for the wider UK economy, supporting jobs, investment and local communities.
“Looking ahead, however, market confidence will depend on greater policy certainty. Recent discussions around potential reforms to Stamp Duty and council tax, alongside broader housing policy proposals from the new Prime Minister, have created questions for many consumers.
“People are understandably reluctant to make major financial commitments if they are unsure how future tax changes could affect the cost of moving.”
Jason Tebb, President at OnTheMarket, says: “The uptick in transaction numbers demonstrates the ongoing resilience of the housing market in the face of economic and political uncertainty.
“Buyers and sellers are adapting to changing circumstances and continuing to proceed with their transactions, rather than stepping back and delaying decisions.
“The steady interest rate environment, with the Bank of England holding base rate at five consecutive meetings, is providing a calming effect. Mortgage rates have edged higher in recent days but there haven’t been any dramatic increases.”
Iain McKenzie, CEO at The Guild of Property Professionals, says: “June’s transaction figures show there’s still life in the housing market despite a challenging economic backdrop.
“Political uncertainty, higher mortgage rates and global events have undoubtedly caused some buyers to pause, but they’ve certainly not stopped the market.
“The increase in mortgage approvals is particularly encouraging because it suggests confidence is beginning to return, even if buyers remain cautious. While lenders have edged rates back up following renewed geopolitical tensions, demand hasn’t disappeared, it’s simply become more measured.”
Mark Harris, CEO at SPF Private Clients, says: “With transaction numbers picking up slightly in June, buyers and sellers pressed on with their plans, taking advantage of mortgage rates which were on a gradual downwards trend.
“Since then, some mortgage lenders have raised rates, with pricing higher than a month ago. However, the Bank of England’s decision to hold base rate for another month sends out a strong message of stability and calm.
“That said, borrowers should not take anything for granted as the situation can shift quickly with little notice.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “Completed sales are always a better indicator of market strength than more volatile prices – and not just because mortgage and cash sales are included.
“Market resilience is self-evident bearing in mind these results reflect buying and selling decision-making from perhaps three or four months ago.
“During that period, concerns about the consequences of the Iran war on mortgage rates and the cost of living were arguably even more relevant than they are now so prospects for a steady improvement remain.”
