PROPERTY PRICE TRACKER: Town and city performance vs inflation
Kate Faulkner reveals which towns and cities are seeing property price falls and rises above inflation.
Of our 30 cities, we are seeing only seven that are still recording property price falls, according to the Land Registry, whereas a slightly more updated picture from Zoopla shows eight towns.
However, looking at property prices year on year doesn’t give us the right ‘view’ from a consumer perspective. What people really need to know is whether they are paying more or less for properties this year than a few years ago!
According to our stats (looking at Land Registry data):-
– Three cities have recovered the property price falls we saw after the Liz Truss budget disaster in September 2022.
– 17 cities are still seeing lower prices than prior to the budget.
– 10 cities having higher prices.
This is particularly important for those worried about losing the SDLT holiday in March next year – if they are buying in one of the 17 cities that haven’t seen prices recover yet, they are still likely to be getting a good deal, even paying the extra tax.
Long term city property price performance vs inflation
Out of the 30 cities we track via the Land Registry, since 2005, property prices have only risen above the average annual 3.8% inflation rate in six cities/towns. These are Manchester, Bristol, London, Cambridge, Brighton and Hove and Oxford.
Except for Milton Keynes and Edinburgh, where prices have risen at the same rate as inflation over time, the remaining towns and cities we track show that property prices, in many areas, have risen at less than inflation.
Property price growth in these towns and ‘on average’ are performing below inflation – Newcastle upon Tyne, Aberdeen, Belfast, Liverpool, Southampton and Portsmouth.
Appendix: City/town property indices price tracking
For city/town tracking, we use Land Registry (government data) and Zoopla/Hometrack. The Land Registry data is useful because we can analyse how property prices have changed over time and this helps us to put today’s price information into context.
The Zoopla/Hometrack data is useful as they take into account the change in mix of property transactions during the pandemic to houses away from flats. This has meant the likes of the Land Registry and other indices have over exaggerated price changes year on year.
