SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS: What’s happening in the property market?

Although we won’t know until the budget, it does look like the SDLT holiday in England is coming to an end in March 2025 and how this could impact the property market.

At the moment, the market looks reasonably buoyant in terms of stock and demand as the data from Chris Watkin and TwentyEA shows. Listings are currently at their highest for seven years, while net sales are the third highest, only beaten by the ‘pandemic years’, and well ahead of the norms we saw in 2018 and 2019.

The good news is it’s likely that transactions will improve if bank base rates result in lower mortgage rates in November/December and if the papers keep talking about the end of SDLT – even though it’s a maximum of £2,500.

This latest data shows that both listings and sales are doing extremely well versus the years prior to the pandemic, matching the more ‘normal’ year of 2018.

Supply and demand data from each of the indices

Zoopla – More supply will keep price inflation in check

“Rising sales volumes are being supported by more homes available for sale, up 12% on this time last year. Many of these homes are new listings from home owners looking to sell and buy another home. However, not all homes are ‘brand new’ to the market. 

“A fifth of homes currently for sale were previously on the market over the last 2 years. While market conditions are improving, setting the right price is important to attract buyers. The same applies to the fifth of homes for sale that have been on the market for more than 6 months, still unsold. This explains why a similar proportion have had their asking price cut by 5% or more to attract buyers. These trends show buyers remain price-sensitive as overall choice improves. Sellers need to price sensibly to secure a sale.”

Rightmove

“The number of sales being agreed between buyers and sellers is up by 27% compared to this time in 2023, a strong rebound compared with last year’s more subdued market. In positive signs for future sales, the number of potential buyers contacting agents is also up by 15% compared with this time last year. Buyer choice has been improving, and the average number of available homes for sale per estate agency branch is at its highest since 2014, at 33 homes. This has come from a 14% increase in new properties coming to the market for sale compared with last year, but there still isn’t a glut of homes for sale, as this figure is only up by 3% when compared with the more normal pre-pandemic 2019 market.

“Despite these strong figures, there are signs that the market is still cautious and price-sensitive. The average property is still taking 60 days to find a buyer, which is three days longer than at this time last year even with better market conditions. This suggests that value-conscious buyers are taking their time to find the right home at the right price, leading to a two-speed market. Attractive homes priced accurately are likely to be met with interest from buyers quickly, while overpriced or poorly presented homes may languish on the sidelines.”