Mixed predictions for 2023 from George F. White

Property specialists George F. White only expects a 5% dip in house prices this year but tougher regulation for landlords, rents to increase for tenants, demand for holiday lets to subside and costs in the agricultural sector continuing to fluctuate.

The firm’s 2023 predictions come on the back of 2022’s unprecedented challenges and with both recession and a cost-of-living crisis dominating the headlines.

SELLERS

Lindsay French (pictured), Associate Valuer with the North East, Southern Scotland and North Yorkshire-based agency, believes that despite what is being said in much of the mainstream media, 2023 will be a great year for both buyers and sellers.

She says: “While I do predict a small dip in house prices of around 5%, it is still a great time to sell and I believe there will be well over one million homes sold nationwide next year.

“It is very much a seller’s market at the moment, which is a trend that is likely to continue throughout 2023.”

CHALLENGES

Lorna White (pictured right), Lettings Manager, says that there’ll be challenges for both landlords and tenants with rent increases at the forefront.

She says: “Due to rising interest rates and a general increase in the overall cost of living, many landlords will find themselves forced to increase the rental price of their properties.

“While this will obviously impact new lettings, many landlords are also having to look at the rates for existing tenants too, who’s rental costs over time may have fallen below current market rates.”

She also believes 2023 will see a decrease in the volume of holiday lets.

Due to an oversaturated market we are likely to see a decrease in the demand for holiday lets.”

She adds: “Due to an oversaturated market, non-competitive pricing and a nationwide shortage of rental properties, we are likely to see a decrease in the demand for holiday lets, that are often under-utilised and likely to be more profitable as longer-term residential rentals.”

Increased landlord liability and tougher regulations proposed for the grounds on which a tenant can be evicted will also be challenging.

If this is not adhered to, landlords can expect a £20,000 to £30,000 fine under HMO Management Regulation.”

She says: “Introduced in October 2022, it became law that landlords must meet the mandatory requirement of fitting smoke and carbon monoxide alarms to their rented properties. If this is not adhered to, landlords can expect a £20,000 to £30,000 fine under HMO Management Regulation.

“There is also a bill in the works to abolish ‘no-fault’ evictions, meaning that once passed, landlords must provide grounds to warrant evicting their tenant. This is already the law in Scotland; however, the bill has not yet passed Parliament in England, meaning it is unclear exactly when it will come into action.”

CASH FLOW

George F. White’s agricultural and rural property specialist Tim Michie (pictured) believes that cash flow demand and its relationship with input prices will continue to be a key factor across the rural property sector in 2023.

He says: “As a result of export bans, continued fallout from COVID-19 and turbulent political events, the agricultural sector has seen a high volume of fluctuating costs which will likely continue well into next year.

“An opportunity for farmers to help lessen the burden in these challenging and unpredictable times, is to utilise and manage their natural assets in order to obtain an economic return. For farmers to really prosper, they also need to look at what their assets are beyond looking at machinery and natural assets like livestock and land and start thinking about themselves as assets.”

MIXED

Meanwhile Richard Garland (pictured right), Partner and Head of Development and Commercial at George F. White, has mixed feelings about the year ahead.

The future is both concerning and exciting.”

He says: “The future is both concerning and exciting. Behind the tabloid headlines lies a much more nuanced picture of the economy. Whilst a recession is upon us, we are seeing continued economic investment by those taking a longer-term view.

“History tells us that there is always an opportunity and those with good financial standing and a longer-term investment view, will do the best in the long term.”