Summer slump continued into September for home sales, says HMRC

The housing market appears to have struggled to get going in September after the summer slump, HMRC figures suggests.

Provisional seasonally adjusted estimates by HMRC suggest the number of residential transactions in September 2026 was 94,800, 4% lower than September 2025 and marginally lower than August 2026.

The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential transactions in September 2026 is 97,940, 5% lower than September 2025 and 1% higher than August 2026, HMRC said.

Industry reaction

Commenting on the figures, Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:  “Mortgage rate and Budget unpredictability have contributed to a shortage of confidence which is weakening demand a little, particularly as prices are so sensitive.

“But despite real incomes and employment improving affordability, these numbers are always a better indicator of market health than prices alone, not just because mortgaged and cash sales are included.

“However, delay to the introduction of the Government’s new Your First Home scheme until next Spring will mean transactions will decline further while aspiring first-time buyers continue to delay taking that crucial first step onto the housing ladder.”

Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, says: “While September traditionally sees the market regain some momentum after the summer, activity this year appears to have remained subdued, with sales 4% lower than same period in 2025. Uncertainty surrounding the Budget and wider economic conditions continue to influence buyer confidence.

“Affordability remains a key consideration for buyers, with borrowing costs continuing to put pressure on budgets and many households taking a more measured approach to their next move. Demand is still present, but buyers are increasingly selective about what they are prepared to pay.

“For sellers, setting a realistic asking price from the outset, informed by recent local sales and current competition, remains essential to securing a successful sale.

“The Budget’s confirmation of a new First Time Buyer ISA and an equity loan scheme, alongside changes to the Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge, is a welcome recognition of the barriers facing people trying to get onto the property ladder. While these measures could help improve confidence and support longer-term saving, they do not remove the wider affordability challenges facing first-time buyers, particularly when it comes to raising a deposit and securing a mortgage.

“Looking ahead, we expect market activity to remain uneven, with local conditions continuing to play a significant role in how quickly properties sell. A return to more sustained growth will depend on buyers feeling more confident about affordability and the wider economic outlook.”

Ian Harris, NAEA Propertymark President, says: “As the wider economy continues to face ongoing challenges, it is understandable to see housing transactions slow both month on month and year on year when looking at non-seasonally adjusted data. Across the year to date, the housing market has been navigating a period of buyer caution and affordability concerns.

“Wednesday’s Budget has helped provide people with much-needed structural clarity on policy for the forthcoming months. However, with inflation creeping upwards again and speculation surrounding the direction the Bank of England may take regarding the base rate next week, there are still important considerations for consumers to review in terms of how this may affect their confidence and affordability moving forwards.

“The expansion of the ‘Your First Home’ scheme is an encouraging step forward, allowing aspiring buyers in England to access property ownership and helping to alleviate the significant initial cost burden facing first-time buyers.

“The introduction of the new First-Time Buyer ISA also provides a vital vehicle for future savers to build their deposits safely. Removing the withdrawal penalties associated with the previous Lifetime ISA framework is a welcome progression, ensuring savers are not penalised if their eventual property ambitions change.”

Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla says: “Higher mortgage rates over the summer and this autumn have seen a 15% hit to buying power for those using a mortgage.

“Sales agreed in the last 4 weeks are also 7% lower than a year ago as buyers become more selective and adopt a wait and see approach.

“Zoopla expects 100,000 fewer housing transactions this year compared to 2025 as higher mortgage rates imapct home movers.”