At the city level, we have two main sources of data: Hometrack, which is around six weeks into the home buying and selling process, and the Land Registry data, which is anything from a few months to six months or more out of date.

Of our 30 cities, only nine are still recording falls, according to the Land Registry, whereas a slightly more updated picture from Zoopla shows only one town is showing a decline in property prices.

Property price performance versus inflation

Since 2005, property prices have only risen above the average annual 3.8% inflation rate in seven cities/towns. These include:

– Manchester

– Bristol

– London

– Cambridge

Milton Keynes is the only town where property prices have risen at the same rate as the 3.8% average annual inflation, whilst the remaining towns and cities we track show that property prices, in many areas, have risen at less than inflation. These include:

– Newcastle upon Tyne

– Aberdeen

– Belfast

– Southampton

Basically, there are three trends with property prices at a city level:

– Growing above long term trends – such as Glasgow, Liverpool and Edinburgh

– Growth on a par with long term trends – such as Leeds and Nottingham

– Growth below long term trends and seeing prices falling – such as Portsmouth and Aberdeen

In other words, my mantra of ‘prices are always going up, down, and staying the same’ remains true, and that’s why individual commentary on property prices is much needed, whether provided by agents or surveyors. This information also has to be put into context – what does it mean for the buyer, seller, or investor? How will this information help them to make better property decisions?

Appendix: City/town property indices price tracking

For city/town tracking, we use Land Registry (government data) and Zoopla/Hometrack. The Land Registry data is useful because we can analyse how property prices have changed over time and this helps us to put today’s price information into context.

The Zoopla/Hometrack data is useful as they take into account the change in mix of property transactions during the pandemic to houses away from flats. This has meant the likes of the Land Registry and other indices have over exaggerated price changes year on year.