REGIONAL ANALYSIS: Indices show similar property price averages
When comparing property price averages for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, Kate Faulkner finds, for once, the indices are agreeing.
When comparing property price averages for the different indices, there is usually a substantial difference. For example, Rightmove’s average for England & Wales is just over £367,000, while Nationwide’s average for the UK is just over £270,000 – a difference of 37%!
However, the property price averages from Nationwide and the Land Registry are pretty similar for each country – despite Nationwide only measuring the purchase of properties with a mortgage as opposed to cash, which the Land Registry include, and is partly because the Nationwide average measures the UK market (with N. Ireland and Scotland), whereas Rightmove measures England and Wales and has a different way of measuring averages.
Overall, the percentage changes year on year are pretty similar too, suggesting that these are the best averages to use when assessing property prices as opposed to asking prices, especially when looking at affordability.
Perhaps the most interesting growth from the Country Index is N. Ireland, looking at the year on year increase. Although prices are still 18% lower than they were in 2007/8 they are starting to recover to their 2007/8 level with a whopping 9% increase at the end of last year according to the Land Registry and 7% from Nationwide.
However, for prices to have kept up with inflation, the average price in N. Ireland would need to be around £370,000, not the £183,259 (Land Registry) to £197,696 (Nationwide) average currently being recorded.
The chart below from Ulster University, the Housing Executive and the Progressive Building Society shows how high property prices went in N. Ireland and how they still have some way to recover, but are still higher than the RPI due to growth seen between 2000 and 2007/8.
According to the index: “The pattern of the house price index since its rapid fall during 2008-2010 has been one of uneven performance. After trending downwards over the period 2011-2013, the overall picture since 2014 has been an upward trajectory for the index, which displayed less variation in price changes initially, but has witnessed more price variability, punctuated by periods of both slightly higher and lower average prices, since 2016.
“This variability seemingly subsided moving into the second half of 2019, which witnessed continued price increases, illustrating more traction than in the previous six quarters.”
Scottish housing market
“Most areas of the UK saw a slowdown in house price inflation in February. Bucking the trend most notably was Scotland, which saw annual growth increase to +3.8% compared to +2.5% in January, with an average house price of £213,014.”
Welsh housing market
“House prices in Wales were up +2.8% compared to the previous year, with properties valued at an average of £226,811.”
“The average price of a home sold in Wales increased slightly to £233,200 in the final quarter, remaining approximately at the same level as it started in the first quarter of 2024.
“The uplift in sales saw the number of transactions at the highest level for three years, following quarter-on -quarter growth signalling strong consumer appetite, and a housing market in Wales that is poised to turn a corner.”
Regional property price tracking
Regionally, we continue to see areas which have better affordability doing well, such as the North East and Yorkshire and Humber. Meanwhile, areas such as London where affordability remains tough, is still seeing little growth.
Overall though, all regions from the indices we track are seeing property prices on the way up, the only exception being the Land Registry which reports zero change for London versus 0.9% to 2% growth year on year.
In comparison, the highest growth is reported in the North East with Home.co.uk suggesting a 5% growth; Nationwide 5.9%+, Land Registry 6.7%+, while Zoopla suggests growth of 2.5% and Rightmove saying asking house prices are up by 3%.
Overall, the price growth across all regions is either just above or just below inflation and although base rates remain at 4.5% for another month, hopefully the strong start to 2025 will continue.
