BLOG: ‘I’m a Tory estate agent but Rishi’s July 4th General Election is a bad idea’
Trevor Abrahmsohn says the PM faces a huge task to overcome Labour lead and that most voters view the election as a 'hobson's choice'.
What on earth is our esteemed, well intentioned and perfectly decent Prime Minister up to now? Bless him. Everyone knows that he was always a better number two man and was elevated by circumstance to the top job.
Perhaps that was beyond his station because in a General Election context Rishi Sunak was always destined to generate galloping indifference from the electorate.
Why on earth did he not take the good advice from Isaac Levido, his electioneering guru, and wait for an autumn election?
It does appear that instead the PM surrounds himself with a cabal of wet behind the ears borderline Millennials who have convinced him to go for broke on July 4th and in doing so attempt to ambush the Labour Party with this surprise attack.
GOLIATH IS GOING TO MURDER DAVID
Sorry to disappoint you Prime Minister but this will never be a D-Day moment for you. The Labour Party are well funded and certainly up for the fight. Unfortunately, given the persistent poll deficit it looks like this this time Goliath is going to murder David.
- Common sense dictates they should have waited for the following good news to materialise over the next four to five months, in the expectant hope that the poll deficit closes.
- At present the average working person is enjoying the highest ‘real growth’ in wages for the last 15-20 years.
- UK growth may well increase over the next two quarters, giving us a lead amongst the G7 countries.
- Inflation is at last moving towards the 2% optimal target figure.
- The International Monetary Fund are predicting three drops in interest rates over the summer which would be good news for mortgages and the property market.
- Who knows, the constipated Rwandan project may well get traction at last, sending a message down the line (as in Ireland) that a life-threatening treacherous boat trip across the Chanel from France will not end up in Utopian UK but instead perhaps a Rwandan hotel.
- There was time for one more Budget in the autumn, which could have included some pupil dilating ‘true conservative’ tax give aways along the lines of National Insurance and Inheritance Tax cuts.
SOFTEN THE RESISTANCE
I’m not sure what planet the Government is on these days but even a nudnik can work out that this is all good news and may well soften the resistance of former Tory voters to come back to the fold.
There is a good proportion of undecided voters who are waiting for the manifestos to be disclosed and let’s be real here, Sir Keir Starmer is no electoral ‘rock star’ and his blatant lack of efficacious policies will be all too clear as the Election campaign grinds on.
It is nauseating to hear the Labour Party’s repetitive class warfare soundbites with regard to non-doms and VAT on schools, supposedly in a vain attempt to help to fund the recruitment of doctors and nurses.
BALDERDASH
All this is fatuous balderdash since these mindless initiatives may not raise any money whatsoever for the Exchequer, but inevitably will start a stampede for the exit door amongst international investors and create huge uncertainty amongst middle class parents whilst deciding the future of their children’s education.
One would have thought that these issues are so important, as a part of the national treasure and if imposed, would represent a triumph of petty politics over pragmatism.
If conscription of young people into community projects or the armed forces is Mr Sunak’s idea of a flagship policy, I’m afraid we’re all at sea. I questioned the wisdom of the anti-smoking ban at the last Tory conference which had no traction and was soporific at best.
POST-BREXIT
As far as the government is concerned, where are the new-found freedoms promised from the post-Brexit era, such as lower Corporation Tax, VAT reclaim and industrial scale deregulation that this country so thirsts for?
I’m sorry to dash the hopes of aspiring businesspeople, who may remember the ‘splash the cash’ antics of Tony Blair’s Labour Party, but the government budget deficit now sits at an eye-watering £120 billion. The new regime under Chancellor in waiting, Rachel Reeves, will be hamstrung by its own rhetoric as all government spending will have to be costed and therefore there will be no wriggle room – unless they increase taxes.
I think the residential property market will trundle along in the expectant hope that mortgage rates will shortly come down further.
However, private landlords, who are fast becoming an extinct breed today, are increasingly worried about the fear of rent caps and the threat of new powers for the tenants which could render the rental investment world a more onerous place than it is at present.
I am pleased to comment that in the lower to middle brackets of the property markets business seems to be continuing unabated. However, it is the higher end that I am concerned about with far fewer enquiries in this sector.
BORIS JOHNSON
Although Boris Johnson was no saint and was the architect of his own misfortune, I fear that the Tories will rue the day that they ignominiously banished him from power. Despite the unforgivable ‘party gate’ shenanigans the poll deficit for the Party was only 6% and was a perfectly manageable. Now, after the antics of Truss and Sunak, it is a consistent 20%+ which, in all likelihood, is a bridge too far.
I’m trying to get a lather up to vote on July 4th but at the moment, for me and perhaps others, the choice is similar to that of two types of root canal treatment and which one you would prefer. Answers on a postcard…
Trevor Abrahmsohn (main picture) is Chief Executive of Glentree International